Publication date: September 19, 2025

The week ahead: inflation US

In Money Care's weekend report, we present you with the overview of the (macroeconomic) events that could cause movement in stock markets.

Review of last week:

The interest rate decision in the US on Wednesday evening was an important moment, but as expected, most attention was focused on the subsequent press conference. The key interest rate was cut from 4.5% to 4.25% as expected. This decision had already been largely priced in by equity markets, limiting the immediate reaction.

During the press conference it became clear that the markets can expect two more interest rate cuts in the US this year, depending of course on the development of the labor market and inflation. This prospect was received positively, causing US equity markets to reach new record highs. In contrast, European markets lagged behind, with the AEX and DAX still trading below peak levels from earlier this year. The strong euro against the U.S. dollar is partly playing tricks on the European stock market in this regard.

Coming week:

In the coming week, the publication of the core PCE price index in the US is the most important macroeconomic data point. This index measures the price development of goods and services that consumers purchase, excluding food and energy. This makes it an important measure of buying behavior and inflation. The core PCE is expected to rise 0.25% on a monthly basis in August and reach 3% on an annual basis. This would mean that inflation in the US has picked up slightly and is still well above the desired 2%.

The stock market calendar week 39

Herewith the most important macroeconomic data for the coming week. The data may cause additional movement in the financial markets.

Monday, September 22, 2025:

Tuesday, September 23, 2025:

• 15.45 Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) September
• 15.45 Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) September

Wednesday, September 24, 2025:

• 16.00 New home sales August
  
  

Thursday, September 25, 2025:

• 14.30 Gross Domestic Product Q2
• 16.00 Sales of existing homes August
  
  

Friday, September 26, 2025:

• 14.30 Core PCE Price Index

Please note that dates and times of these events may change. For the most up-to-date information, it is advisable to consult the official communication channels of the relevant organizations and authorities.

Disclaimer: Investinginvolves risks. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.