Publication date: August 20, 2026

AEX

On Thursday morning, August 20, the AEX stood at 1,102 points. That is 14 points, or 1.25%, lower than last week.

Market Trends

The AEX started the trading week slightly lower at 1,112 points. The sharp rise in U.S. long-term interest rates, increasing tensions in the Middle East, and lingering doubts about the high valuations of AI and chip stocks caused the index to lose ground last week.

The current level is around this week’s provisional low of 1,101 points.

Sentiment

Short-term sentiment in the stock markets remains slightly negative. Attention is increasingly shifting to whether companies can justify their high valuations in the future.

Outlook

The AEX is currently moving in line with expectations. According to our model, the index could first test the 1,080-point range from its record high of 1,121 points. After a possible recovery toward approximately 1,100 points, our base scenario anticipates a correction toward the 1,030 to 1,050-point range.

For the long term, the positive scenario remains intact. Following this correction, our model anticipates a new upward move toward the price target of 1,230 points.

The chart below shows the AEX’s price movement starting in mid-2025, including our projected scenario.

Nasdaqfutures

On Thursday morning, August 20, the Nasdaq futures contract was trading at 29,640 points. That is 220 points, or 0.75%, lower than last week.

Market Trends

The Nasdaq futures contract started the week above 30,000 points and reached its weekly high of 30,343 points on Monday. Subsequently, technology stocks in particular lost ground, causing the Nasdaq futures contract to fall by approximately 3% to 29,375 points.

From that level, the price has shown a volatile and, for now, fragile recovery.

Sentiment

Long-term sentiment toward technology remains strong. In the short term, however, the high valuations of many AI-related stocks are causing growing uncertainty.

Outlook

Our model estimates the probability of a short-term upward move toward 32,000 points to be lower than last week. This scenario remains possible, but we currently consider a further decline toward the 26,500 to 27,500-point range to be more likely.

Following this correction, our model anticipates a resumption of the long-term uptrend, with a price target of approximately 34,500 points coming into view.

The chart below shows the Nasdaq futures from mid-2025 onward, including the expected price movement.

Dow Jones futures

The Dow Jones futures are currently trading at 53,495 points. That is 515 points, or 0.95%, lower than last week.

Market Trends

The Dow Jones futures contract started the week slightly lower at 53,775 points and reached its high for the week that same day at 53,829 points. From that level, the price fell by approximately 1% on Tuesday to the week’s preliminary low of 53,309 points. The futures contract then recovered to its current level.

Sentiment

The underlying sentiment surrounding the Dow Jones futures remains positive, although there is some uncertainty in the short term.

Outlook

According to our model, the price may still rebound slightly in the short term. After that, we anticipate a further correction toward 51,000 points.
This level could then serve as a basis for a new upward move toward the long-term price target of approximately 58,700 points.

The chart below shows the price movement of the Dow Jones futures contract starting in mid-2025, including our expected scenario.

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In the market calendar, we cover the most important topics with commentary and our outlook. Read the market calendar for August 17 through August 21, 2026, here, and starting Friday afternoon, you can read the market calendar for the upcoming week of August 24 through August 28 here . 

Disclaimer: Investing involves risks. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts’ own insights and experiences. They are therefore intended for educational purposes only.