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It is Friday, April 19, and the AEX is trading at 858 in the morning after the index set a low this morning at 853. The current position is down 34 points from last week, which means the AEX is down just under 4% for the week.
Above, you'll find the chart of the AEX over the past 12 months. You can see the upward trend since November 2023 and the second correction that started last week.
Fear is prevailing. The ever-present tension in the Middle East is increasing, there also have been no significant macroeconomic figures last week that could bring optimism. International investors are pulling back and liquidating part of their portfolios, resulting in corrections in the stock markets.
The major trend in the stock markets is still upward, and corrections are part of the process. Last week, the decline due to panic selling has been quite steep. The algorithm closed long positions in the AEX and Nasdaq on Wednesday, indicating that we should wait out the correction. The expectation is that the AEX will stabilize between 850 and 845 in the coming week. Most likely, from this zone, is the AEX going to resume its upward trend towards this year's target of 920.
Important note: If the AEX fails to hold above 845, the most likely scenario is that it will decline further towards 800. Therefore, the 850-845 zone is crucial for the AEX's trajectory in the coming months.
The Nasdaq is still in an upward trend, but fear drives a temporary pullback. The most likely scenario is that the correction could bring the Nasdaq back into a wide range between 17,000 and 16,200. This broad range is due to its high volatility. From this range, the Nasdaq is expected to resume its upward trend towards the 2024 target of 22,500.
Another important note: The Nasdaq, with its tech stocks, holds great potential but also faces high expectations. Hence, the possibility of a larger correction exists. If the 16,200 level is breached, we cannot rule out further correction in the Nasdaq towards 14,500.
Below is the chart of the Nasdaq100 -future since January 1, 2023. You can see the volatility and uptrend including the sharp correction currently underway.
