Publication date: May 30, 2025

The week ahead: ECB interest rate decision and US labor figures

In Money Care's weekend report, we present you with an overview of the (macroeconomic) events that could cause movement in stock markets.

Brief review of last week:

Trade War:

A U.S. trade court has ruled that the broad import tariffs imposed by President Trump exceed presidential powers. The ruling has created uncertainty about the future of U.S. trade policy. Although the court suspended enforcement of some tariffs, a federal appeals court has allowed the tariffs to remain in effect for now while the legal process continues. China welcomed the ruling and called for the removal of all unilateral tariffs.

China is preparing for a prolonged economic confrontation with the US. The Chinese government is focusing on strengthening domestic production of microchips and other strategic sectors, and is implementing contingency plans to cope with future U.S. measures. These steps underscore China's expectation that trade tensions may persist over the long term.

In summary, the U.S.-China trade war remains complex and dynamic, with legal, economic, and technological dimensions influencing each other. Although there is temporary relief from tariff reductions, the underlying tensions and strategic rivalry between the two countries remain and continue to hang over the markets as an uncertain cloud.

Upcoming week:

Two important events in the coming week. On Thursday, the ECB will release its interest rate decision. European deposit rates are expected to be cut by 25 basis points to 2%. Depending on the explanation given by the ECB, this move could have a positive effect on stock markets.

On Friday, the monthly labor figures from the US will be published. This is an important gauge of the Fed's interest rate policy. Hourly wages are expected to have risen slightly to an increase of 0.3%. The number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector is expected to have declined slightly from last month. The market expects 130,000 new jobs in May. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2. In short, the market expects less job growth and higher wages, with which a slightly negative scenario is already taken into account by the market.

The stock market agenda week 23:

Here is the most important economic data for the coming week.

Monday, June 2, 2025:

United States:

• 15.45 Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index May (expected: 52.3)
• 16.00 ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index May (expected: 48.7)
• 19.00 Address by Fed Chairman Powell
  
  

Tuesday, June 3, 2025:

• 11.00 Consumer Price Index (expected: 2%)
  
  

Wednesday, June 4, 2025:

• 15:45 Services Purchasing Managers Index(expected: 52.3)
  
  

Thursday, June 5, 2025:

• 14.15 ECB interest rate decision(expected: 2%)
• 14.45 ECB press conference
  
  

Friday,June6, 2025:

• 14.30 Non Farm Payrolls me
• 14.30 Average hourly earnings (expected: 0.3%)
• New payrolls (expected: 130,000)
• Unemployment rate (expected: 4.2%)

Please note that dates and times of these events may change. For the most up-to-date information, it is advisable to consult the official communication channels of the relevant organizations and governments.

Disclaimer: Investing involves risks. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.