Current AEX Index
It is Friday, September 6, and the AEX is at 891 in the afternoon session. That is 31 points (3.3%) lower than last week's level. Above, you will find the chart of the AEX since January 1, 2024. You can see the most likely scenario for this year plotted.
The AEX started the week quietly because of the holiday in the U.S. which caused the stock markets to be closed. On Tuesday, the AEX began falling from 922 to 888 on Thursday. All in anticipation of the very important monthly labor figures at 2:30 p.m. on Friday afternoon. These figures triggered panic selling last month, but today that remains absent. The figures provide a mixed picture. Hourly wages rose more than expected, which is good for the stock market. However, the number of new jobs was lower than anticipated, which is negative for the market. The unemployment rate was in line with expectations. For now, investors are reacting slightly positively to this mix of figures.
What does this mean for sentiment?
Sentiment in equity markets can be characterized as "tense in anticipation." Will the markets break to the upside after the turbulent month of August, or will recessionary fears resurface, leading to another sharp decline? The situation has remained unchanged for weeks. This can also be seen in the major results. It really remains "make or break."
What is the expectation of the course of the AEX Index?
The algorithm remains completely neutral on the AEX due to ongoing high uncertainty. Due to the high volatility at the time of the decline at the beginning of this month, we also saw larger than expected breakdowns in the recovery. The recovery continued again in the past week with a drop of over 3%.
The most likely scenario remains that the AEX has completed the recovery in the 920-925 zone. Then the larger correction will be completed by a fall of the AEX in the coming months to the 820-810 level. A closing position in the coming week below 885 could become the trigger for the ride to the 810.
The major trend is up and the indicated decline is a healthy correction and offers perfect opportunities to buy shares for the longer term. The AEX price target remains 1,025 points.
Backtrack: read our view of the AEX from August 30, 2024 here
Coil movement of the Nasdaq
The Nasdaq futures are currently at 18,900, which is 630 points (3.2%) lower than last week's reading.
The Nasdaq futures show a similar course as the AEX. A sharp decline in early August was followed by a very strong recovery. Last week saw a drop of over 3% again, and thus the Nasdaq also follows the preferred scenario as indicated earlier
What is the expectation of the Nasdaq's share price movement?
Because of the currently higher-than-average risk, the algorithm is neutral on the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq is also in the make or break zone. In the most likely short-term scenario, the Nasdaq has already completed the recovery and may continue the correction from the current level, potentially dropping to the 16,500 level.
After the correction, the Nasdaq can resume the strong trend toward the long-term price target of 22,900 points for the future.
Below is the chart of the Nasdaq100 future since January 1, 2024, with the most likely scenario plotted.
Important items on the economic calendar for the week of Sept. 9 through Sept. 13:
In the week ahead, attention will again turn to U.S. inflation data.
On Tuesday at 2:30 p.m., the Consumer Price Index will be released, and on Thursday at 2:30 p.m., the Producer Price Index will follow.
On Thursday at 2:15 p.m., the ECB will come out with its interest rate decision, followed by the press conference at 2:45 p.m. These are important events that can cause big moves in a tense market.
Disclaimer: Investing involves risks. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.
