Publication date: June 11, 2025
AEX
The AEX was quoted at 1,053 points in the morning session on Thursday, June 11. That is an increase of 10 points, or 0.95% from last week.
Market development
On Monday, the AEX opened slightly lower at 1,031 points and reached its weekly low at 1,029 points on the same day. The same pattern as in the previous week. Then the AEX ran up in a volatile move and reached a new record low of 1,062 points on Tuesday. After a sharp correction to 1,039, the AEX picked up the positive line and reached up.
Sentiment
Sentiment in equity markets is positive, but the nervous undertone remains. The fear of a sharp correction to the AI hype remains.
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Forecast
As expected, the AEX slightly exceeded the old record high of 1,056 points with a weekly high of 1,062 points. Our model again does not rule out a test of the 1,062 points for the coming week and that the AEX may briefly exceed that level to around 1,067-1,070 points. After that, the correction towards the zone of 995 to 985 points is the most likely scenario.
In the longer term, the positive scenario remains intact. Our model expects another upward movement towards a new price target of 1,150 points within twelve months.
A close below 920 points invalidates this scenario and shifts the technical picture to neutral to negative. As long as this level holds, the long-term perspective remains constructive.
The chart above shows the AEX over the past two years, including the expected price trend.
Nasdaq futures
The Nasdaq futures are trading at 28,815 points on Thursday morning, June 11. That is down 1,615 points, or 5.3% from last week.
Market development
Nasdaq futures have made a fantastic price jump in recent months, but were hit hard this week by macroeconomic data and geopolitical developments. Last Friday, the stock price dropped over 5% following the release of monthly labor figures. After a brief recovery, the stock price reached its weekly low at 28,227 points on Tuesday.
Sentiment
Sentiment around technology remains strong, but the momentum from the recent rise is out, so the market is taking into account an interim correction.
Forecast
The long-awaited correction in Nasdaq futures has begun, according to our model. From the current level, the price may experience a short-term recovery to around 29,800 points. Then the major correction will be completed and the price can move to the zone between 27,500 and 26,500 points. After this correction, the long-term upward trend can resume towards the new price target of at least around 32,500 points.
The chart below shows Nasdaq futures as of September 2025, including the expected scenario.
Dow Jones futures
The Dow Jones futures are currently trading at 50,290 points. That is down 670 points, or 1.3% from last week.
Market development
Just last Friday, the Dow Jones futures reached a new record high of 51,812 points. After the release of the monthly labor figures, the price had to decline about 2%.
This week began with a slight recovery, but the Dow Jones futures then reached the as yet lowest weekly reading at 49,754 on Thursday morning.
Sentiment
Underlying sentiment around the Dow Jones futures remains strong, but the market is taking into account an interim correction.
Forecast
The old top of 51,415 points was indeed tested as expected. The decline that followed is, according to our model, the start of the larger correction.
In the short term, a recovery to 50,600-50,700 points is possible. After that, the most likely scenario is for the price to initiate a correction towards 48,600 points. This level can then serve as the basis for a new upward move toward the long-term price target of around 55,000 points.
The chart below shows Dow Jones futures as of September 2025, including the expected price trend.
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