Publication date: Feb. 6, 2025
Soccer is emotion. As a result, an article about soccer club AFC Ajax will trigger a certain emotion in many a reader. Especially in the week after the classic against Feyenoord. Our apologies for that. At Yelza.com people from all corners of the world, even Amsterdammers and Rotterdammers, work fraternally together to provide you with a professional article devoid of emotion.
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Let's not forget that Ajax is a listed company whose business is soccer. As a result, Ajax shares perform and fluctuate with the successes and setbacks within the organization. This makes it no different from other listed companies. The Ajax share can make a huge jump this year, which is why we draw your attention today.
Price history Ajax
For an analysis, we do not have to go very far back in time. Below you will find the price chart from 2017 with some key moments indicated.
In 2017, Ajax played in the Europa League final and the club was on the eve of greater European success. In 2019, Ajax became the national champion and won the National Cup and also reached the semifinals of the prestigious UEFA Champions League and can count itself among the top European soccer teams. The till is ringing and the share price rises to the record level of €25.
The following years are well enough known. COVID-19 means empty stadiums and the world experiences an uncertain period. The share price drops back to €12 (-50%). After COVID-19 comes under control, the share price recovers to € 18 (+50%). In 2023, the club experienced its provisional low. In October, Ajax dangles in the lower reaches of the Eredivisie, and a major managerial crisis plays out. Too many overpriced players, poor management, and poor sporting performance. The share price dropped to €9 (again -50%).
At that time, the American merchant bank Citigoup bought into the club by taking a stake of about 4%. Currently, the Ajax share price is hovering around € 10.
What is the expectation of the Ajax share?
If we first take a look at the most recently published annual figures, we notice that the stock market value is lower than the equity. By the way, the fiscal year runs from July 1 to June 30, and Ajax published in September. Equity at that time was 226 million. At the current share price of €10 and knowing that over 18 million shares exist, it is clear that Ajax is undervalued. We look for the reason for a lack of investor confidence in the future.
The share price at Ajax is primarily dependent on sporting success. This is related to direct business success because of the huge increase in premiums etc. Indirect business success can follow through the increased transfer value of players. This is exactly what happened in the 2017-2019 period.
Ajax is currently in second place in the Eredivisie, with one game less played than leaders PSV. Incidentally, the league is just over halfway through but Ajax has a good chance of finishing second. This gives them an immediate spot in the main tournament of the UEFA Champions League. This is of great importance because then the cash register will start ringing again and Ajax can once again present itself on the highest European stage. Moreover, Ajax also has a real chance of becoming national champions this season. In that case, the club will also go directly to the sporting million-dollar ball.
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We do not immediately expect Ajax to repeat the hegemony of 2017-2019 and quickly rise to €25 from this share price level. However, we can say that the current valuation is only 10% higher than at the time when Ajax was near the bottom and in a considerable crisis. This seems to us too low a valuation in the current situation.
As reported, much depends on participation in the UEFA Champions League. This remains somewhat uncertain. Should Ajax not participate, we do not expect the share price to fall much further than the level during the crisis in October 2023 at €9.
If Ajax does seize the realistic opportunities to participate, the share price could experience a substantial percentage increase this year and possibly also in the coming years to approximately € 15 to € 17 (+50% to +70%).
Conclusion
A soccer club and its share price know the necessary emotions and are therefore more subject to sporting Good times, bad times. Ajax has experienced this in recent years; from European topper to relegation candidate in the Netherlands. Currently, the sporting road upwards has been somewhat regained and it is administratively quiet within the club. With the current price of around €10, the share is low valued but the club has real opportunities to achieve sporting - and business successes this year. As a result, it is currently worth considering taking Ajax shares into your portfolio for the longer term.
Disclaimer: Investing involves risks. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.