Publication date: October 1, 2026
AEX
On Thursday morning, October 1, the AEX stood at 1,099 points. This puts the index 8 points, or 0.7%, lower than last week.
Market Trends
The AEX has been fluctuating erratically around the 1,100-point level for several weeks now.
The index got off to a strong start this trading week. Led by tech stocks, the AEX even reached a new record high of 1,127 points on Wednesday. Following the announcement of stronger-than-expected economic growth in the United States, fears of a further interest rate hike intensified. As a result, the AEX fell approximately 2.5% to a provisional weekly low of 1,099 points.
Market Sentiment
Short-term sentiment surrounding the AEX remains mixed and uncertain.
image_here
Outlook
For now, the AEX is moving in line with our expectations. According to our model, the index could first test the 1,085-point range from its record high. Following a possible rebound toward approximately 1,106 points, our base scenario anticipates a further correction toward 1,070 points.
For the longer term, the positive scenario remains intact. Following this corrective phase, we expect the uptrend to resume, bringing the price target of 1,230 points back into focus.
The chart above shows the AEX’s price movement since early 2026, including our expected scenario.
Nasdaq Futures
On Thursday morning, October 1, the Nasdaq futures contract is trading at 30,825 points. This puts the futures contract 400 points, or 1.3%, higher than last week.
Market Developments
The Nasdaq futures contract started the week on a weak note but quickly recovered, reaching a new record high of 31,151 points on Thursday morning. This level was only briefly sustained, after which the futures contract quickly fell back by about 1% toward its current level. The Nasdaq futures have thus been showing strong price performance for several weeks now.
Sentiment
The long-term technical outlook for the Nasdaq futures remains positive. In the short term, however, sentiment is uncertain.
Outlook
In our base scenario, we anticipate a corrective move of approximately 3 to 4% from current levels, which could bring the futures contract down to around 30,000 points.
Following this correction, we expect the long-term uptrend to resume. This brings a new price target of approximately 35,000 points into view.
The chart below shows the price movement of the Nasdaq futures contract starting in early 2026, including our expected scenario.
Dow Jones futures
On Thursday morning, October 1, the Dow Jones futures contract was trading at 51,000 points. This puts the futures contract 690 points, or 1.3%, lower than last week.
Market Trends
The Dow Jones futures had a lackluster week. In the first half of the week, the futures still reached a level above 52,000 points, followed by a decline of approximately 2.5% toward the current level of around 51,000 points.
Sentiment
The underlying sentiment surrounding the Dow Jones futures remains positive, although there is still some uncertainty in the short term.
Outlook
According to our model, the Dow Jones futures may first test the 50,000-point range in the short term. From this level, a recovery toward approximately 52,500 points is possible under our base scenario.
After that, we anticipate a new corrective move toward 50,000 points. From this zone, the larger corrective phase could come to an end.
A successful bottom formation around this level could then lay the foundation for a new upward move toward the long-term price target of approximately 58,700 points.
The chart below shows the price movement of the Dow Jones futures contract from the beginning of 2026, including our expected scenario.
Every Sunday morning, we publish the market calendar for the coming week. Would you like to receive the market calendar by email? You can sign up here.
In the market calendar, we cover the most important topics with commentary and our outlook. Read the market calendar for September 28 through October 2, 2026, here, and starting Friday afternoon,you can read the market calendar for the upcoming week of October 5 through October 9 here .
Disclaimer: Investing involves risks. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts’ own insights and experiences. They are therefore intended for educational purposes only.