Publication date: March 5, 2026
AEX
The AEX was quoted at 1,000 points on Thursday morning, March 5.That is down 30 points, or 2.9 percent from last week.
What happened on the AEX in the past week?
After the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran over the weekend, the AEX opened remarkably calm on Monday at 1,016 points. This steady opening was supported in part by a higher price of heavyweight Shell.
In the days that followed, an erratic price trend developed. The index fell to the provisional weekly low of 983 points on Tuesday, followed by a recovery to around 1,005 points on Wednesday. Such a pattern is characteristic of markets in which geopolitical uncertainty plays a greater role.
Sentiment
Market sentiment around the AEX remains mostly positive, but uncertainty has clearly increased due to developments in the Middle East.
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Forecast
The price movement over the past week leads to an adjustment of the short-term forecast within our algorithm.
The level of 1,031 points, reached at the end of February, is currently considered the provisional high. For the short term, we consider it likely that the AEX will first recover towards around 1,018 to 1,020 points. This may be followed by a larger correction.
In the most likely scenario, this decline could lead to a move towards 940 to 950 points.
The long-term price target remains unchanged. The zone around 940 to 950 points could provide a basis for a new upward phase toward the 12-month price target of 1,070 points.
A closing below 910 points would invalidate this positive long-term scenario. In that case, the technical picture shifts to a more neutral phase with increased downside risk. As long as the 910 point level holds, the positive long-term picture remains intact.
Above is the chart of the AEX as of June 2025. The arrows illustrate the most likely scenario for the coming months.
Nasdaq futures
The Nasdaq futures are trading at 25,155 points on Thursday morning, March 5. That is down 195 points, or 0.75 percent from last week.
What happened?
The Nasdaq futures have been moving erratically and directionally within a range of about four percent for several weeks now. In the past week, the price moved mainly sideways between about 24,350 and 25,250 points.
Forecast
In the short term, a test of the zone around 23,500 points remains plausible. From that level, the Nasdaq futures may show an intermediate recovery towards around 25,000 points.
From that level, we consider a larger corrective move towards the zone around 22,600 points likely. After that, in the most likely scenario , the Nasdaq futures could resume the long-term trend and continue to rise towards the unchanged price target of at least 28,500 points.
The chart below shows the Nasdaq futures as of May 2025 showing the most likely scenario for the coming period.
Dow Jones Industrial Average
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently trading at 48,700 points.That is down 725 points, or 1.45 percent from last week.
What happened.
The index started the week weak, falling to the preliminary weekly low of 47,680 points on Tuesday.In the following days, the Dow Jones managed to recover again toward its current level.
Forecast
Within the most likely scenario, the index could recover toward about 49,800 points in the short term.
For the medium term, the system then foresees a larger corrective move towards about 45,500 points. This level is also the lower limit calculated by the algorithm for the current multi-year uptrend.
The 45,500 point level is expected to hold and thus form the basis for another upward phase towards the next price target of around 53,700 points.
The chart below shows the DJIA futures from July 2025 showing the most likely scenario.
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Disclaimer: Investing involves risk. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.