Publication date: December 18, 2025
It is Thursday, December 18. The AEX notes 932 in the morning session. That is 8 points (0.85%) lower than last week's reading.
What happened on the AEX during the past week?
The AEX opened the week flat at 942 and set a weekly high at 947 the same day. From then on, the AEX began the continuation of the correction. On Wednesday afternoon, the provisional weekly low was set at 929. This is a similar pattern to that of the previous week and is also entirely in line with expectations.
The publication of important monthly labor figures in the U.S. (NFP) on Tuesday afternoon provided the next reason for equity markets to continue the decline. The labor market in the US is developing disappointingly.
What does this mean for sentiment on the AEX?
Overall sentimenton the AEX remains uncertain. Of great importance is the development of inflation. This afternoon at 2:30 p.m. inflation figures for November in the US will be published. If inflation is significantly lower than expected (3.1%) then this could give relief to equity markets and trigger a recovery.
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What is the expectation for the AEX?
The stock price is moving as expected making the expectation unchanged.
In the most likely short-term scenario, the AEX will complete the correction in the 910-915 zone.
For the coming months, we expect a volatile stock market undergoing a larger correction. This means that after the 915, a recovery to around 955-960 is expected, before falling through to 880. Then the AEX continues the major trend to a new top around 1,015.
Below 880, the longer-term positive scenario expires and the AEX enters a neutral zone with an increased risk of further decline. As long as 880 holds, the long-term positive scenario remains in place.
Above is the chart of the AEX as of January 2025. The arrows indicate the most likely scenario for the coming months.
Whathappened on the Nasdaq this past week?
The Nasdaq futures are at 25,050 on Thursday morning, December 18. That is down 450 points (1.75%) from last week.
The Nasdaq futures opened the week slightly lower at 25,223 but briefly managed to rise through to 25,500. Following the release of the NFP, the Nasdaq fell back to its preliminary weekly low at 24,887.
What is the outlook for Nasdaq futures?
Unchanged. Long-term positive with a price target of 27,800. In the most likely scenario, the Nasdaq will also experience a longer correction to eventually the zone around 22,300. From that level, the Nasdaq can continue upward toward the price target. With a close below 22,200, the positive scenario expires.
Below is the chart of Nasdaq futures from January 2025 showing the most likely scenario.
What happened on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Index this past week?
The DJIA is currently trading at 48,280 points, which is 310 points (+0.65%) higher than last week's reading.
The DJIA is holding up extremely well and surprised late last week with a new record reading at 48,909. The reason for the strong DJIA can be found in the fact that there is a shift from highly valued risky assets (Tech/AI) to more conservative assets.
However, under the uncertain sentiment, the DJIA could not hold the record high for long and fell back to 47,875 in the past week. With the current position, the DJIA manages to pick up the strong trend and is heading for a tidy gain this week for now.
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What is the forecast for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index?
In the forecast for the DJIA, our algorithm gives a positive adjustment. The correction goes shallower and the price target is adjusted upward.
In the most likely short-term scenario, the DJIA continues to move in a sideways pattern between 47,000 and 49,000. Furthermore, the correction is rounded at 45,500. For the longer term, our system foresees a price target of 51,500. The scenario expires at a close below 43,200.
Below is the chart of DJIA futures from January 2025 with the most likely scenario plotted.
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Disclaimer: Investing involves risk. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.