Publication Date: September 10, 2026
AEX
On Thursday morning, September 10, the AEX stood at 1,100 points. That is 2 points, or 0.18%, lower than last week.
Market Development
The AEX initially continued the sideways trading seen in recent weeks before the sharp rise in oil prices this week sparked more volatility. The AEX opened the trading week on a positive note at 1,113 points. On Tuesday, it reached its highest weekly level at approximately 1,120 points, supported by optimism in the semiconductor sector. Starting Wednesday, rising tensions in the Middle East and the oil price which was heading toward $100 per barrel, caused a clear reversal. As a result, the AEX fell to 1,102 points on Wednesday, and on Thursday, the index dropped further to 1,100 points, the lowest level of the week so far.
Market Sentiment
Short-term sentiment surrounding the AEX remains mixed and uncertain.
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Outlook
For now, the AEX is moving in line with our expectations. Last week, we already indicated that the index could test the zone around 1,080 points from its record high of 1,121 points, after which a potential recovery toward the current level of approximately 1,100 points could follow. Following this recovery, our base scenario anticipates a further correction toward 1,050 points.
For the long term, the positive scenario remains intact. Following this correction, we expect the upward trend to resume toward the price target of 1,230 points.
The chart above shows the AEX’s price movement since early 2026, including our expected scenario.
Nasdaq Futures
On Thursday afternoon, September 10, the Nasdaq futures contract was trading at 29,040 points. This puts the futures contract 220 points lower than last week, or 0.75%.
Market Trends
The Nasdaq futures contract attempted to break through the resistance level at 29,811 points this week. On Monday, the futures climbed to 29,639 points, the highest level of the week so far. However, this attempt failed: the futures did not rise above the crucial threshold of 29,811 points. From that point on, the futures contract gradually retreated, reaching 29,339 points by Thursday morning.
Sentiment
Sentiment surrounding tech stocks has clearly weakened this week. Whereas earlier expectations were for a rapid breakout to new records, the willingness to buy is now waning. Moreover, the underlying technical pattern is more difficult to interpret than before, which reduces the likelihood of a new high in the short term.
Outlook
Our model now anticipates a scenario in which the Nasdaq futures will first correct further before a new rally can follow. From the recent level of 30,975 points, the futures could pull back toward the 26,500-point range.
Once this correction is complete, we expect the long-term uptrend to resume, with a price target of approximately 34,500 points.
The chart below shows the price movement of the Nasdaq futures contract from the beginning of 2026, including our expected scenario.
Dow Jones futures
The Dow Jones futures contract is currently trading at 52,319 points. That is 941 points, or 1.77%, lower than last week.
Market Trends
The Dow Jones futures contract started the week on a quiet note, with limited trading due to the Labor Day holiday in the United States on Monday. Starting Tuesday, a clear decline set in: the futures contract fell from around 53,190 points to approximately 52,750 points, driven by sharply rising oil prices due to escalating tensions in the Middle East. On Wednesday, the decline continued, reaching a weekly low of approximately 52,240 points today.
Sentiment
The underlying sentiment surrounding the Dow Jones futures has clearly weakened this week. Rising oil prices and ongoing tensions in the Middle East are putting pressure on the price, and caution now prevails even in the short term.
Outlook
According to our model, the decline in the futures contract is expected to continue for a while longer. From the high of 54,881 points, our model anticipates a test of the 51,500 to 50,500-point range, possibly before the end of this year. Once this level is reached, it could serve as a base for a new upward move toward the long-term price target of approximately 58,700 points.
The chart below shows the price movement of the Dow Jones futures contract from the beginning of 2026, including our expected scenario.
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