Publication date: February 5, 2026
It is Thursday, February 5, and the AEX is trading at 992 points in the morning session. That is 9 points (0.9%) lower than last week's reading.
What happened on the AEX in the past week?
The AEX opened Monday one percent lower at 990. From that point onward, the index hovered around the 1,000-point mark, reaching a weekly high of 1,014 points on Tuesday morning before also setting a preliminary weekly low at 989 later the same day. The market remains uncertain and therefore highly volatile within a range of approximately 2%. Heavyweight technology stocks declined by a few percent this week, contributing to the modest pullback in the AEX.
What does this mean for sentiment on the AEX?
Overall sentiment on the AEX is positive, although short-term euphoria is waning. A volatile transition period is expected in financial markets in the first quarter of 2026, but underlying sentiment remains positive.
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What is the expectation for the AEX?
In the most likely scenario for the coming months, the AEX is expected to first test the area around 975 before setting a new high in the region of 1,040. This may then be followed by a corrective move towards the 970 zone. This would set the stage for an upward breakout towards the 12-month price target of 1,070.
A move below 910 would invalidate the positive long-term scenario and place the AEX in a neutral zone with an increased risk of further downside. As long as the 910 level holds, the positive long-term scenario remains intact.
The chart above shows the AEX from January 2025 onwards. The arrows indicate the most likely scenario for the coming months.
What happened on the Nasdaq over the past week?
On Thursday morning, 29 January, Nasdaq futures are trading at 26,270. This is 650 points (2.5%) higher than last week.
Over the past week, Nasdaq futures tested the record high of 26,400, reaching an intraday high of 26,350. Better-than-expected results from Meta, Tesla and Microsoft supported the Nasdaq and contributed to a solid weekly gain.
What is the outlook for the Nasdaq futures?
The long-term outlook remains positive, with a price target of 28,500. The Nasdaq is trading at elevated levels and showing strong momentum; however, in the most likely scenario, a temporary pullback towards around 25,000, and possibly as low as 24,300, may occur. From that zone, the Nasdaq could resume its upward move towards the stated price target. A daily close below 22,200 would invalidate the positive scenario.
The chart below shows the Nasdaq futures from February 2025 onwards, including the most likely scenario.
What happened on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) over the past week?
The DJIA is currently trading at 49,180 points, which is 185 points (0.35%) lower than last week’s level.
index has been moving in a relatively narrow range between 49,000 and 49,800.
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What is the outlook for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index?
In the most likely short-term scenario, the DJIA may undergo a modest correction towards approximately 48,000. For the longer term, our model projects a price target of 53,700. A daily close below 45,500 would invalidate this scenario.
The chart below shows the DJIA futures from February 2025 onwards, with the most likely scenario plotted.
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