Publication date: June 4, 2025
AEX
The AEX was quoted at 1,043 points in the morning session on Thursday, June 4. That is an increase of 8 points, or 0.75% from last week.
Market development
On Monday, the AEX opened slightly lower at 1,034 points and reached it's weekly low at 1,026 points on the same day. During the week, the AEX rallied and reached its weekly high at 1,053 points on Wednesday. This rise was caused by a strong price performance in high-tech funds. Heavyweight ASML reached a record high of €1,496 on Wednesday.
Sentiment
Sentiment in equity markets is positive, but with nervous undertones. The fear of a sharp correction to the AI hype is increasing.
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Forecast
As expected, with a weekly high of 1,053 points, the AEX has tested the record high of 1,056 points over the past week. For the coming week, our model does not rule out another test of the 1,056 points and that the AEX may briefly exceed that level. Subsequently, the correction towards the zone of 995 to 985 points is the most likely scenario.
In the longer term, the positive scenario remains intact. Our model expects another upward move towards a new price target of 1,150 points within 12 months.
A close below 920 points invalidates this scenario and shifts the technical picture to neutral to negative. As long as this level holds, the long-term perspective remains constructive.
The chart above shows the AEX as of early 2025, including the expected price trend.
Nasdaq futures
The Nasdaq futures are trading at 30,430 points on Thursday morning, June 4. That is up 485 points, or 1.6% from last week.
Market development
The Nasdaq futures continued their strong advance over the past week, reaching another record high at 30,807 on Wednesday. The price then consolidated slightly lower.
Sentiment
Sentiment around technology remains strong, but the momentum from the recent rise is waning, increasing the likelihood of an intermediate-term correction.
Forecast
According to our model, the Nasdaq futures could correct about 10% from the current level towards the zone between 27,500 and 26,500 points. The stock price has been rising for longer than expected without any significant correction to new record levels. As long as this situation continues, the likelihood of a sharp correction increases.
After this correction, the long-term upward trend can resume towards the new price target of at least around 32,500 points.
The chart below shows the Nasdaq futures as of early 2025, including the
expected scenario.
Dow Jones futures
The Dow Jones futures are currently trading at 50,960 points. That is up 290 points, or 0.55% from last week.
Market development
The Dow Jones futures also reached a new record at the 51,415 point level on Wednesday. Subsequently, the price corrected slightly.With this, the Dow Jones future shows a similar price trend as the AEX.
Sentiment
Underlying sentiment around the Dow Jones futures remains strong, but the possibility of a correction is increasing.
Forecast
The old top of 51,200 was tested last week, as expected. Our model expects a sideways pattern for the coming week. In this, the current top of 51,415 may be tested. Subsequently, the most likely scenario is that the price initiates a correction towards 48,600 points.
This level can then serve as the basis for a new upward movement toward the long-term price target of around 55,000 points.
The chart below shows Dow Jones futures as of early 2025, including the expected price trend.
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