Publication date: May 21, 2025
AEX
The AEX is trading at 1,029 points in the opening session on Thursday, May 21. That is an increase of 22 points, or 2.2% from last week.
Market development
On Monday, the AEX opened slightly lower at 1,005 points but quickly managed to find its way up. Mainly due to positive reports for the chip sector, the AEX reached the record high of 1,037 points on Wednesday. On Thursday morning, the reaction to Nvidia's better-than-expected quarterly results was muted for the time being.
Sentiment
Sentiment in equity markets is positive with uncertain undertones. Quarterly results are good but the market remains uncertain about increased inflation and rising interest rates.
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Forecast
For the coming weeks, a correction towards the zone of 995 to 985 points remains the most likely scenario. In the longer term, the positive scenario remains intact. Our model expects another upward move towards a price target of 1,080 points within twelve months.
A close below 920 points invalidates this scenario and shifts the technical picture to neutral to negative. As long as this level holds, the long-term perspective remains constructive.
The chart above shows the AEX as of mid-2025, including the expected price trend.
Nasdaq futures
The Nasdaq future is trading at 29,265 points on Thursday morning, May 21. That is down 50 points, or 0.15% from last week.
Market development
The Nasdaq futures reached another record high at 29,782. The price then consolidated slightly lower. On Tuesday, the preliminary weekly low was set at 28,663 points.
Sentiment
Sentiment around technology remains strong, but the momentum from the recent rise is waning, increasing the likelihood of an intermediate-term correction.
Forecast
According to our model, the Nasdaq futures may correct about 10% from the current level towards the zone between 27,500 and 26,500 points.
After this correction, the long-term upward trend can resume towards the new price target of around 32,500 points.
The chart below shows Nasdaq futures as of mid-2025, including the expected scenario.
Dow Jones futures
The Dow Jones futures are currently trading at 50,000 points. That is up 150 points, or 0.3% from last week.
Market development
The Dow Jones futures show a sideways price trend in recent weeks between 49,000 points and 50,000 points.
Sentiment
Underlying sentiment around the Dow Jones futures remains strong.
Forecast
In the short term, the Dow Jones futures may start a correction towards 48,200 points.
This level can then act as the basis for a new upward move towards the adjusted long-term price target of around 55,000 points.
The chart below shows the Dow Jones futures as of mid-2025, including the expected price trend.
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