Publication Date: October 15, 2026
AEX
On Thursday morning, October 15, the AEX stood at 1,127 points. This puts the index 17 points, or 1.5%, higher than a week earlier.
Market Trends
On balance, the AEX showed a positive price trend over the past week. After a strong start, the index reached a new record high of 1,141 points on Wednesday. This was followed by a correction of approximately 1.7%, during which the AEX fell to a provisional weekly low of 1,122 points.
The decline followed higher-than-expected U.S. inflation figures and growing concerns about AI-related stocks. AEX heavyweight ASML, in particular, came under pressure. The stock fell from €1,612 to a provisional low of €1,422, a loss of nearly 12%.
Sentiment
Short-term sentiment remains fragile. Rising bond yields and concerns about AI-related companies are weighing on the market and increasing the risk of further price declines. For the longer term, sentiment remains positive.
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Outlook
The AEX is still in an uptrend, despite the sharp interim corrections. According to our model, after recently hitting a record high of 1,141 points, the index may first pull back toward 1,110 points.
From this level, we expect a recovery toward 1,160 points in our base scenario, possibly followed by another correction to around 1,120 points. Once this corrective phase is complete, we anticipate a resumption of the long-term uptrend, bringing our price target of 1,230 points into view.
The chart above shows the AEX’s price movement starting in mid-2026, including our expected scenario.
Nasdaq Futures
On Thursday morning, October 15, the Nasdaq futures contract is trading at 29,770 points. This puts the futures contract 1,485 points, or 4.75%, lower than a week earlier.
Market Developments
The Nasdaq futures had a weak trading week, during which the price fell sharply without any significant recovery. In particular, the combination of rising bond yields and concerns about AI-related companies weighed on sentiment surrounding the Nasdaq-100.
After a quiet start around 31,200 points, the futures contract came under increasing selling pressure on Wednesday following the release of U.S. inflation figures. The decline continued to a preliminary weekly low of 29,750 points.
Sentiment
The long-term technical outlook remains positive for now. However, the recent price decline increases short-term uncertainty and points to an elevated risk of further downward price movements.
Outlook
In our base scenario, we anticipate a continuation of the correction toward 29,000 points in the short term. Such a pullback remains consistent with the broader positive technical outlook and is viewed as a possible temporary interruption of the uptrend.
Once this corrective move is complete, we expect the long-term uptrend to resume, bringing our revised price target of approximately 32,500 points into view.
However, our model does signal increased uncertainty regarding the feasibility of this price target. Although this does not change the base scenario at this time, the short-term downside risks deserve particular attention when assessing the expected recovery.
The chart below shows the price movement of the Nasdaq futures contract starting in early 2026, including our expected scenario.
Dow Jones futures
On Thursday morning, October 8, the Dow Jones futures contract was trading at 51,150 points. This puts the futures contract 150 points, or 0.3%, higher than last week.
Market Trends
The Dow Jones futures also started the trading week on a positive note. On Tuesday, the futures reached this week’s high, just below 52,000 points. A correction of approximately 1.7% then set in, causing the price to fall back to around 51,150 points.
Sentiment
The long-term technical outlook remains positive, although the recent pullback points to ongoing short-term uncertainty. The price action indicates that the upward trend will continue to be accompanied by sharp interim corrections for the time being.
Outlook
According to our model, the Dow Jones futures contract may initially pull back to the 50,000–50,500-point range in the short term. From this range, we expect a recovery toward approximately 52,500 points in our base scenario.
After that, we anticipate a new corrective move toward 50,000 points. This pullback could mark the completion of the broader corrective phase.
A successful bottom formation around this level could then lay the foundation for a resumption of the long-term uptrend, bringing the price target of approximately 57,000 points into view.
The chart below shows the price movement of the Dow Jones futures contract since early 2026, including our expected scenario.
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