Unilever is one of the best-known names on the Amsterdam stock exchange. With brands such as Dove, Axe, Knorr and Hellmann's, millions of consumers come into contact with this company every day. Yet the stock has been showing a technical weakening pattern for some time. From the top of over €63 in 2025, the price has fallen back to around €49. Our algorithm points to a scenario where the share price could fall further towards €38 in the next 12 months.
How did it get to this point? And what does this mean for investors who have the stock in their portfolio or are considering entering? In this article, we list the facts and express our expectation for Unilever shares over the next twelve months.
image_here
What are the developments within Unilever?
Unilever has had an eventful period. In 2017, the company rejected a takeover bid of more than 130 billion euros from Kraft Heinz. Although that was seen as a logical choice at the time, current CEO Fernando Fernandez later indicated that in the years since, too much attention has been focused on internal discussions and not enough on volume growth.
Fernandez took office in March 2025, succeeding Hein Schumacher, who left after two years. Upon taking office, he spoke remarkably critically of parts of the organization and announced plans to replace about 50 of the top 200 managers.
That is a remarkable message from an internally ascended CEO. It shows that Unilever feels itself forced into a thorough reset. Fernandez has a strong background in Beauty & Wellbeing and was CFO before his CEO appointment. He knows the company inside and out, but also faces the task of showing results quickly.
Financially, too, the picture is mixed. For 2025, Unilever reported sales of €50.5 billion, a 4% decline caused mainly by unfavorable exchange rates. Underlying, sales grew 3.5% and net profit rose 3% to €6.2 billion. Margins are improving and cash flow remains strong, but the market remains critical of volume growth.
In Q1 2026, underlying sales grew 4.2%, slightly stronger than expected. Still, reported sales fell to €12.6 billion due to currency effects. The food division in particular lagged behind, growing 2.2%. This underlines why Unilever wants to put more emphasis on higher-margin businesses with stronger growth prospects in the coming years. For 2026, Unilever expects underlying sales growth at the lower end of the range of 4% to 6%, with at least 2% volume growth.
Unilever's new strategy
Unilever's new strategy is primarily about focus. The company wants to become simpler, more profitable and less fragmented. Parts that are not growing as fast or yield lower margins are being critically examined or divested.
An important step in this was the split-off of the ice cream division, with brands such as Magnum, Ben & Jerry's and Cornetto. The food division is also under pressure, as it is not growing as fast as the Beauty & Wellbeing and Personal Care businesses.
Unilever therefore seems to be increasingly focusing on segments with higher margins and better growth prospects. Acquisitions such as Dr. Squatch and Minimalist fit within that course. These brands target younger consumers and categories where there is still clear growth potential.
The strategy makes sense, but it also brings uncertainty. A major restructuring takes time and investors first want to see if Unilever can actually deliver the promised growth.
What is analysts' view of Unilever's share price?
Fundamentally, analysts remain mostly positive about Unilever. The average price target of 22 analysts is around €55, with an average recommendation of "build." Morningstar even estimates fair value at around €57, citing Unilever's strong market position, broad brand recognition and economies of scale within Personal Care.
The technical picture, however, is not as strong. Based on price patterns and technical indicators , the stock is currently on "Strong Sell." The price is trading well below both the 50-day average of €53 and the 200-day average of €54, leaving the stock technically vulnerable, especially compared to the 52-week high of €63.39.
Our view on the Unilever share price?
Below is Unilever's price chart over the past few years. The arrows show the most likely scenario at a glance.
Unilever's share price has a clear weakening technical pattern. After peaking above €63 in 2025, the stock has sought support around €47-€50. Our algorithm shows that this level can only stabilize the price temporarily.
The most likely scenario for the next 12 months is a recovery attempt towards €51, followed by a further decline. The price target indicated by our system is €38, which is the level where the long-term support level lies and where the correction can find a logical end.
A drop from the current €49 to €38 means a possible further price decline of about 22%. Although the fundamentals may paint a more positive picture in the medium term, Unilever is currently in a transitional phase. The transformation takes time and the market does not yet seem to have fully assimilated this uncertainty.
For active investors, a short position around the current price may be considered. An alternative is to wait for a possible recovery towards €50 to €51. Our 12-month price target is €38.
Conclusion
Unilever is in the midst of a major transformation. The strategic direction is clear: less complexity, more focus on profitable growth segments and less dependence on food. In the long run, this could create a stronger and simpler Unilever.
For now, however, the technical picture remains weak. The price is trading below important moving averages and the downward momentum has not yet disappeared. Our algorithm therefore takes into account a further correction towards €38 over the next 12 months.
For investors who already have the stock in their portfolio, this may be a time to critically assess the position. A decline towards €38 to €40 may in fact represent an interesting entry point again in the long run, provided the transformation begins to yield visible results.
Unilever will publish new quarterly figures on July 27, 2026, which should provide more clarity on the initial effects of the new strategy.
Disclaimer: Investing involves risks. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.