Publication date: September 18, 2025
On June 12, 2025, we covered Tesla in the article: Tesla: up or down? Opportunities ahead!
We are now over three months on and it is time for an update on this spectacular stock. The stock price has taken direction and a first quick opportunity has already presented itself.
Did you miss it? Another opportunity is coming. In this article, we look back on the past few months but most importantly look ahead to the opportunities we can expect.
We recommend you first read the June 12 article. Click HERE for the article.
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What are the developments at Tesla?
The most recent development is Elon Musk's purchase of 2.57 million shares. With this, he is investing about a billion US Dollars in Tesla. This gives him more control and it exudes confidence.
As you have read in the article Tesla: up or down? Opportunities ahead! dated June 12, 2025, a closing price above USD 365 was a breakout and the buy consideration with an initial price target at USD 415.
This scenario came true exactly and was mainly caused by Elon Musk's buying action and, moreover, did happen very quickly. You then should have bought Friday, September 12 around the opening at around USD 370 since the close on Thursday, September 11 was USD 368. Then on Monday the price opened at USD 425 and you should have sold. This profitable lightning action was well calculated by the algorithm but we assume that in practice not everyone was able to profit from it. This was truly an acceleration characteristic of Tesla.
Below is the price chart including the scenario that was issued in the June article. On the right you can see raging sprint of about 15% to the first price target.
Elon Musk continues to build the company confidently and at full speed with his investment. This takes courage and vision because car sales figures remain dismal even in the past quarter compared to last year. For example, sales in 2025 in the EU remain about 50% lower than in 2024. Tesla's Electronic Vehicles (EV) market share in the US fell to less than 40% in August. This is the lowest market share ever for Tesla. Of course, this also reduces sales (-12%) and net profit (-16%). The reason remains competition, especially from Chinese BYD. This creates not only less sales but also margin pressure. Add to that higher Research and Development (R&D) costs and uncertainty about government subsidies. In addition, Tesla has suffered some reputational damage surrounding Elon Musk's activities for Donald Trump. Should Musk still meet certain targets with Tesla, he has proposed a mega compensation plan for himself. This could amount to USD 100 billion! Important milestones in this include the market value and development of robotic cabs.
On June 22, 2025, Tesla launched a limited Robot Taxi service in Austin. This uses modified Model Y cars with a "safety monitor" (human supervision) on board, usually in the passenger seat. Development is proceeding steadily but will eventually take a long time. Regulations are a major bottleneck. Different states in the U.S. require different approvals; commercial robotic cabs without a human driver are not yet approved in many areas. Tesla did receive approval in Nevada for "autonomous vehicle testing / registry certification," meaning they can legally conduct testing in the state. They have plans to expand into the San Francisco Bay Area, depending on permits. There is much mention of "safety monitor" in testing but full removal of that monitoring is scheduled for late 2025.
Furthermore, Tesla is busy expanding production of new energy products such as the Megapack 3. This is a utility-scale battery storage product with improved capacity. In addition, the Megablock, a system that combines multiple Megapacks with circuits and transformers. Faster installation and lower construction costs are thus achieved. Construction is underway on a new plant in Brookshire, Texas for the production of Megapack 3 with a capacity of about 50 GWh/year.
What is the general analyst expectation for Tesla?
Here the differences remain wide. In particular, fundamentally-minded analysts are neutral to pessimistic. The average 12-month price target has been raised slightly from the previous article: from USD 300 to USD 320. The current price is above USD 400. Technical analysts are more positive and generally have Tesla on Strong Buy with price targets up to USD 500.
Analysts see growth, especially driven by the energy division (Megapack etc.) and by AI / robot cab / autonomous systems.
But there are also warnings that car margins in particular could remain under pressure from competition, price declines, costs for materials, logistics etc.
The robotaxi is a key part of the valuation for many analysts. Some charge that robot cabs are a huge catalyst for a growth opportunity in market capitalization and new revenue streams. But most are skeptical about the timing: expected launches of large-scale robotaxi services or autonomous driving without a human driver are often later (2027-2028 or after), not as soon as Musk sometimes suggests.
For 2025, some analysts' revenue expectations come in at around USD 110-120 billion. Deliveries for 2025: consensus is around 2 million vehicles, but some lower their expectations due to weak markets in Europe & lower growth in US/China. For 2026, analysts often expect stronger growth if robotaxi + AI functions scale up, plus recovering margins.
What is our expectation for Tesla
Our algorithm remains positive for the long term. While the stock price has broken out above USD 365, the underlying cause is fragile. As reported, the hefty buy by Elon Musk has been the driver for this rapid breakout to USD 425. The algorithm gives as the most likely scenario a correction that could lead to USD 365 before continuing to rise to the unchanged next price target at USD 488. In that zone, the short-term movement again becomes crucial for the long-term continuation. The preferred scenario already gives the possibility of a new high at USD 550.The positive scenario expires at a close below USD 270.
Below is Tesla's price chart with the most likely scenario plotted.
Conclusion
The progressive and successful Tesla will become a normal but strong player in the EV market due to competition in the coming year. The shock of sharply declining sales compared to the highly successful years will fade in 2026. That "misery" will have been dealt with by then. Tesla remains an exceptional innovative survivor. The Robot Taxi is similarly progressive and will take time. At that point, competition from China will once again emerge.
For now, the first price target is arrowed and according to the scenario we can start the next buy consideration in the correction around USD 365. Target price USD 488. Stoploss USD 270. Upon reaching USD 488, consider selling half the position, increasing the stoploss to USD 415 and setting the target at USD 550.
The publication of the third quarter figures is expected on October 22, 2025 after trading hours.
Disclaimer: Investing involves risks. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.