Publication date: May 1, 2025
It is Thursday, May 8. The AEX is at 905 in the morning. That is 28 points (3.2%) higher than last week's reading.
What happened on the AEX in the past week?
The AEX continued its recovery. The Index opened higher at 896 on Monday. The low was 890, and the Index was trading around its weekly high at 905 on Thursday morning. The Fed's interest rate decision to leave interest rates unchanged and the accompanying statement are being picked up positively by stock markets.
What does this mean for sentiment on the AEX?
Sentiment on the AEX is turning positive. Uncertainty about geopolitical developments remains, but is slowly giving way to cautious optimism.
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What is the outlook for the AEX?
Attached is the chart of the AEX as of November 2024. The arrows indicate the most likely scenario for the coming months.
The expectation has changed. Our algorithm is more positive than in recent weeks. However, we must make a strong comment. As the Fed also reported on Wednesday in its statement, the geopolitical situation is such that we need to be extra cautious and especially keep our powder dry in case we need to act. In other words, the developments regarding the trade war and inflation have an additional major influence on the direction of the financial markets in the coming period.
Be ready to jump right in as soon as more clarity emerges. After all, the Stock markets could go straight up to our price targets from the current levels or still go back sharply for a while. It is unclear, and the coming weeks will show what the definitive direction will be for the coming months.
Fortunately, in unclear times, we do have a most likely scenario. This scenario assumes that the correction was completed on April 7 at the 784 level. The current rise can continue to 920 to then undergo a correction to 880-860. Then, from that level, the trend will continue to the final price target at 1,050.
What happened on the Nasdaq this past week?
The Nasdaq futures stood at 20,225 on Thursday morning, May 8, which is 245 points (1.2%) higher than last week's reading. The Nasdaq futures showed great strength earlier and continued their advance cautiously over the past week. The Nasdaq opened Monday at 20,180. The low is 19,675, and the market is trading around the high at 20,235 on Thursday morning.
What is the outlook for the Nasdaq future?
What applies to the AEX also applies to the Nasdaq. In short, the most likely scenario is that the correction is completed at 16,800. The Nasdaq futures may continue to rise from the current level to around 20,600 before undergoing a correction to around 19,300. From then on, the Nasdaq futures are expected to continue to the preliminary price target of at least 24,000.
Below is the chart of the Nasdaq futures from November 2024 with the most likely scenario.
What happened on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Index this past week?
The DJIA is currently trading at 41,550 points, which is 450 points (1.1%) higher than last week's reading. The DJIA has neatly continued its strong advance over the past week. This week, the DJIA opened higher at 41,375 and set the low at 40,760 and is currently fluctuating around the weekly high of 41,560.
What is the outlook for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index?
As with the Nasdaq futures, in the most likely scenario, the algorithm expects the DJIA to have already completed the correction. From the current level, there is room up to 42,800 before correcting to 41,600. After that, the strong advance will continue towards the price target of 48,000.
Below is the chart of the DJIA futures from November 2024 with the most likely scenario plotted.
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