Publication date: Aug. 7, 2025
It is Thursday, August 7. The AEX is at 888 in the morning session. That is 25 points (2.7%) lower than last week's reading.
What happened on the AEX in the past week?
The slip to 880 that we have been writing about for weeks occurred on Friday, Aug. 1. President Trump introduced a wide range of import tariffs on that day, affecting Canada, India, Taiwan and Switzerland, among others.
In addition, the U.S. reported only 73,000 new jobs in July, significantly less than expected. In addition, the number of jobs in earlier months was revised sharply downward (-258,000). In recent days, the AEX rebounded with a weekly high at 892.
What does this mean for sentiment on the AEX?
Underlying sentiment on the AEX is positive.
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What is the expectation for the AEX?
The longer-term expectation is unchanged positive. In the most likely scenario of our algorithm, the AEX is going to rise to the price target 1,050.
In the short term, in our model there is a modest possibility of a continuation of last week's decline. After reaching 881 and the recovery that followed, the AEX may experience another short drop to 865 in the coming weeks. This still fits within the pattern and does not affect the positive long-term scenario. The stoploss is therefore adjusted to 850.
Above is the chart of the AEX as of March 2025. The arrows indicate the most likely scenario for the coming months.
What happened on the Nasdaq over the past week?
The Nasdaq futures are at 23,500 on Thursday morning, August 7 that is 290 points (1.2%) lower than last week.
The Nasdaq futures have corrected to 22,800 over the past week exactly as we expected. It then recovered nicely to 23,500.
What is the outlook for the Nasdaq futures?
Unchanged positive for the longer term with price target 26,300. In the most likely scenario, the Nasdaq futures could test the 22,800 level again in the short term and then to continue to rise to the price target at 26,300.
Belowis the chart of the Nasdaq futures from March 2025 with the most likely scenario.
What happened on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Index this past week?
The DJIA is currently trading at 44,350 points, which is 400 points (0.9%) lower than last week's reading.
The DJIA also fell back late last week to the 43,750 level we indicated earlier. Subsequently, the DJIA recovered to 44,475.
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What is the outlook for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index?
For the longer term, the expectation is positive. For the short term, the DJIA may experience another modest correction to 43,200 and then continue upward to the price target at 49,000.
Below is the chart of DJIA futures from February 2025 with the most likely scenario plotted.
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