It's Friday, April 5th, and the AEX is trading at 878 in the morning shortly after the release of the monthly labor figures from the US. This is 4 points lower than at the time of the previous update on Thursday, March 28th.
Above, you'll find the chart of the AEX for the month March. Following sideways movement in February, March shows an upward trend and the achieved target price, followed by a correction.
Investors worldwide are currently focused on interest rates, particularly in the US and the EU. Interest rate policies are closely linked to inflation. US labor figures provide insights into inflation trends. This afternoon's figures were positive for the US economy, suggesting inflationary pressures. As a result, the Fed may have less reason to lower interest rates, which is negative for stock prices. Prices are holding steady for now, but we need to stay vigilant for a correction following last month's rise.
The AEX in the past week neatly reached the price target of 890 points. The position thus closed at the price target. The AEX has subsequently already shown an initial decline to 874 and remains slightly above it. The algorithm's highest probability is a further decline to 865. The price target for this year remains 920.
The Nasdaq futures are currently at 18,175 which is 275 points lower than last week. For the much more volatile Nasdaq, the scenario with the highest probability is that there is still a tentative final top in the barrel to the 18900-19000 but that the move up must come now. The index has been wavering for a long time and is very sensitive to bad news. The Nasdaq is expected to begin a larger correction from that level as a prelude to the final 2024 price target of 22,500.
Below is the chart of the Nasdaq100 futures over the past few weeks. You can see the volatility and sideways correction over the past week.