Publication date: Oct. 31, 2024
Course movement AEX Index
Thursday, Oct. 31, the AEX is at 875 in the morning session. That is down 23 points (2.55%) from last week's reading. The chart of the AEX over the past seven months is above. You can see the most likely scenario as we have been reporting it for several weeks.
The AEX opened the week quietly sideways around 900, in anticipation of many corporate and macroeconomic figures that we can look forward to this week. On Tuesday, Philips came out with bad news, setting the stage for lower prices on the AEX. Wednesday was overshadowed by higher-than-expected inflation data from Germany and, on top of that, heavyweight Tech funds are falling.
What does this mean for sentiment?
Sentiment in equity markets can be characterized as "wait-and-see."
As has been reported many times before; expectations are extremely high. A very slight setback will immediately start to provide additional fuel for the underlying somewhat anxious sentiment. We need to wait and see how the macroeconomic figures unfold in the upcoming period.. The necessary company figures are coming out in this period and it is especially to be seen whether the heavy weighted companies can live up to the high expectations.
What is the expectation of the price movement of the AEX Index?
The algorithm has a running short signal for the AEX from 885. The price target is 835 and the stoploss is lowered from 930 to 910.
The most likely scenario is unchanged this week and indicates that the AEX has completed the recovery in the 920-925 zone. Subsequently, the larger correction is completed by a drop of the AEX to the 835 level. This scenario will be confirmed once the AEX closes below 877.
As soon as the correction is completed, we will be able to pick up the major upward trend. That moment will give fantastic opportunities to buy for the price target of 1025 by the end of 2025.
Importantly, in the coming weeks, there will be a number of important events on the agenda that could cause extraordinary price moves. Thursday afternoon we expect inflation figures from the U.S. and Friday afternoon the labor figures from the U.S. Particularly the period around the presidential elections in the U.S. can be quite treacherously volatile.
Below you will find the chart of the AEX over the past seven months. You can see the most likely scenario as we have been reporting it for several weeks.
Look back: read our view of the AEX of October 24, 2024, here
Course of the Nasdaq
The Nasdaq futures are currently at 20.315 which is 15 points lower than last week's reading and thus virtually unchanged.
The Nasdaq futures started the week on a positive note and on Wednesday recorded the preliminary high at 20.780. Wednesday afternoon, Tech funds in particular sank, causing the Nasdaq to plunge about 2%.
What is the forecast for the Nasdaq future?
Positive but very cautious. The algorithm has indicated a higher probability of a buy position exit for the short term. This means that the Nasdaq must continue its trend in the coming days or else the buy position will be closed. The stoploss is 19,750. The price target remains 21,000.
For the long term, the technical trend is up and the price target is 22,900.
Below is the chart of the Nasdaq futures as of early July with the most likely scenario plotted.
Important items on the economic calendar for the week of Nov. 4 through Nov. 8:
The coming week revolves around the Presidential election on Nov. 5. In addition, the Fed will meet on Thursday starting at 7 p.m. for its interest rate decision and commentary.
Disclaimer: Investing involves risk. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.