Publication date: April 3, 2025
It is Thursday, April 3, and the AEX is at 878 at around 2 p.m.. That is down 35 points (3.8%) from last week's reading.
What happened on the AEX in the past week?
The AEX opened lower as early as Monday at the 899 level. Tuesday followed a slight recovery to 907. Today, the AEX set the preliminary low of the week at 877. This is a result of the trade tariffs announced by President Trump last night at 10 p.m. ET. These trade barriers are more severe than had been expected.
What does this mean for sentiment on the AEX?
Sentiment on the AEX is uncertain and anxious. Volatility has increased sharply.
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What is the outlook for the AEX?
In recent weeks, the recovery has finally stalled at 927. Furthermore, the price dipped vigorously below the important limit of 887. The algorithm gives a most likely scenario of a further decline to 850, followed by a recovery to around 888 before completing the larger correction at 830. From that level, the AEX can continue the upper uptrend with the unchanged price target of 980.
Above is the chart of the AEX over the past 4 months. The arrows indicate the most likely scenario for the coming months.
What happened on the Nasdaq this past week?
The Nasdaq futures are currently at 18,980, which is 1,090 points (5.4%) lower than last week's reading.
The Nasdaq futures opened the trading week at 19,320 points and managed to set Wednesday night's high at 20,045 points. After Donald Trump's speech, the market slumped sharply with the provisional weekly low at 18,819.
What is the expectation for the Nasdaq future?
The expectation, according to our most likely scenario, is that the Nasdaq now completes the correction at the already reported 17,500 points. There is already speculation of a further decline towards 15,800. However, this is not yet preferential but is something to keep in mind.
For the longer term, the Nasdaq is expected to pick up the larger uptrend from 17,500 with a preliminary target of 24,000.
Below is the chart of the Nasdaq futures over the past 9 months with the most likely scenario.
What happened on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Index over the past week?
The DJIA is currently trading at 41,300 points, which is 1,450 points (3.4%) lower than last week's reading.
The DJIA opened the week at 41,590 and also managed to post its weekly high Wednesday night at 42,835. Then it went down hard to the low of 41,197.
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What is the outlook for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index?
As with the Nasdaq futures, in the most likely scenario, the algorithm now expects the DJIA to advance to the first price target of the correction at 38,300. Also, in the DJIA, we should not rule out a possible further decline in advance. This is not a preferred scenario, but keep in mind a further decline to 35,300.
For now, the expectation is the drop to 38,300 to resume the upward trend from that level to the preliminary price target of 48,000 points.
Below is the chart of DJIA futures from August 2024 with the most likely scenario plotted.
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