Publication date: December 27, 2024
Course AEX Index
It is Friday, December 27, and we hope you have enjoyed the Christmas season. The AEX is at 876 in the opening session. That is down 4 points (0.45%) from last week's reading.
The AEX has had a very limited opening this week. The Index did move significantly over the past four days. This follows last week's U.S. interest rate decision and is a result of lower trading volume at this time of year. The AEX has tested the important lower limit of 870 twice but has consistently found the strength to close above it. Currently, the AEX is recovering and stands at 876.
What does this mean for sentiment on the AEX?
Sentiment on the AEX is moderately positive for the month ahead.
Chart AEX Index
Below is the chart of the AEX over the past 6 months. You can see the signals and the most likely scenario for the short-term plotted.
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What is the AEX's forecast?
The AEX should continue to exceed the 870 level on a closing price basis. As long as this floor holds, the most likely scenario is that the AEX will rise to 897 in January.
At that point, the continuation scenario will be determined. Currently, the longer-term view is difficult to determine as there are still too many variables and alternatives.
If the AEX closes below 870 then that is a first sign of an expectation of weaker prices which puts levels of 855 and 830 back in sight. In addition, at that point, the AEX may enter a downtrend to as low as 800.
So the outlook is positive but we should certainly be alert to an uncertain and difficult phase for equity markets. Equity markets have had considerable momentum, especially in the US. A slight setback in early 2025 from macroeconomic figures and/or a faltering policy from President Donald Trump could lead to a sizeable correction.
For now, the signal is green and we expect higher prices.
What happened on the Nasdaq this past week?
The Nasdaq futures are currently at 22,025 which is 465 points (2.1%) higher than last week's reading.
The Nasdaq futures first suffered a sharp correction of 6.5% over the past week. The price tested the well-known 21,000 limit and also managed to recover well in recent days. Currently around the 22,000 points with which the moving Nasdaq is up another small 5%. Substantial movements and on balance higher again than last week.
What is the forecast for the Nasdaq future?
The outlook is positive for the short term. The long position taken at 20,440 has an unchanged short-term price target of 23,000. The stop loss has again been raised from 20,400 to 20,900. As a result, there is now a stop-profit.
Below is the chart of the Nasdaq futures over the past 6 months with the most likely scenario.
What happened on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Index this past week?
The DJIA is currently trading at 43,500 points, which is 570 points (1.3%) higher than last week's reading. The DJIA future shows a weaker picture than the Nasdaq during December. In the past week, the index tested the lower limit of 42,000 but currently manages to recover well.
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What is the outlook for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index?
The near-term outlook is uncertain and slightly negative. The DJIA is showing a weakening in the pattern and therefore may fall further back to the 40,250 level. This scenario will be confirmed once the DJIA closes below 41,750. This is the bottom line for maintaining the uptrend.
Below is the chart of DJIA futures over the past 6 months with the most likely scenario plotted.
Important items on the economic calendar for the week of December 30 through January 3:
The coming week is another special trading week because of New Year's Eve and New Year's Day.
On New Year's Eve, the main European stock markets will be open for half a day but the US market will be open. On New Year's Day, all stock markets will be closed. Also, no major macroeconomic figures will be published.
Disclaimer: Investing involves risk. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.