Publication date: April 24, 2025
It is Thursday, April 24, and the AEX is at 867 in the opening session. That is 17 points (2%) higher than last week's reading.
What happened on the AEX in the past week?
Because of the holidays, the past trading week was very short. On Tuesday, the AEX opened at 849 and also set the same day's low of the week at 848. Wednesday, the recovery continued with a high at 876. With that, the AEX also reached well over the top of our calculated trading range. Thursday morning, the AEX was again down more than one percent at 867. The volatility remained high.
What does this mean for sentiment on the AEX?
Sentiment on the AEX remains uncertain. Markets move very violently on minor news events. Uncertainty, especially about the development and consequences of the trade war, makes sentiment anxious and uncertain.
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What is the expectation of the AEX?
Overall, the expectation has not changed. However, the levels have been adjusted. The most likely scenario indicates that the messy recovery will continue in the coming weeks. From the current level 867, we have to reckon with big lows between 820 and 880. The major correction is not over yet. The algorithm expects a new definitive low at around 765 after the messy recovery. Then the big uptrend will be resumed, and we could be on to new highs above 950 again.
Above you will find the chart of the AEX from the beginning of this year. The arrows indicate the most likely scenario for the coming months.
What happened on the Nasdaq this past week?
The Nasdaq futures are currently at 18,650, which is 50 points (0.25%) higher than last week's reading.
On balance, the Nasdaq futures are virtually unchanged but have had a volatile week. This picture has been true for all financial markets for several weeks. The Nasdaq opened Monday at 18,300 only to set a weekly low at 17,700 and a high at 19,165.
What is the expectation for the Nasdaq's future?
We expect the risky and frantic recovery phase to continue for a while with big lows between 16,800 and 19,500. Furthermore, the Nasdaq completes the major correction around the 16,200 level. Thereafter, the uptrend will continue towards the price target of 24,000.
Below is the chart of the Nasdaq futures over the past 7 months with the most likely scenario.
What happened on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Index over the past week?
The DJIA is currently trading at 39,500 points, which is 700 points (1.75%) lower than last week's reading.
The DJIA is also experiencing a volatile period and continues to show weakness. This week, the DJIA opened at 39,200 only to set its weekly low at 38,000 and its high at 40,540.
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What is the outlook for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index?
As with the Nasdaq futures, in the most likely scenario, the algorithm expects the DJIA to enter a messy period with large turnouts within the still wide range of 36,000 and 41,000.
The major correction will be completed at the 34,800 level. After that, the uptrend will continue with a price target of 48,000.
Below is the chart of DJIA futures from September 2024 with the most likely scenario plotted.
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