Publication date: March 20, 2025
It is Thursday, March 20, and the AEX is at 924 in the opening session. That is 28 points (3.1%) higher than last week's reading.
What happened on the AEX in the past week?
The AEX opened at 905 on Monday and continued its strong recovery in the days that followed. The preliminary weekly high was set Thursday morning at 926.
What does this mean for sentiment on the AEX?
Sentiment on the AEX has improved for the short term. The recovery in European equity markets is strong. This does not yet mean that the larger correction has been averted. Concerns about the U.S. economy in particular remain.
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What is the outlook for the AEX?
Last week's price action gives room for a further recovery beyond the expected 915. For the coming week, our model expects that the recovery from the 887 can continue up to 937. The most likely scenario then assumes the completion of the larger correction at 850. From 850, the AEX is expected to pick up the larger uptrend and round out to the unchanged price target at 980.
Above is the chart of the AEX over the past 3 months. The arrows indicate the most likely scenario for the coming months.
What happened on the Nasdaq this past week?
The Nasdaq futures are currently at 20,030 which is 530 points (2.7%) higher than last week's reading. The Nasdaq futures opened the trading week at 19,670 points and have continued the recovery. The preliminary weekly high is 20,140.
What is the expectation for the Nasdaq future?
The short-term expectation for the Nasdaq is that the price may continue to recover. U.S. markets are showing less strength than European markets. The recovery price target has been adjusted from 20,600 to 20,450. From that level, the most likely scenario is that the Nasdaq futures will finish the deeper correction by falling to around 17,500.
For the longer term, the Nasdaq will pick up the larger uptrend from 17,500 with a preliminary price target of 24,000.
Below is the chart of the Nasdaq futures over the past 8 months with the most likely scenario.
What happened on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Index this past week?
The DJIA is currently trading at 42,350 points, which is 1,150 points (2.8%) higher than last week's reading. The DJIA opened the week at 41,400 and continued its recovery to the preliminary weekly high of 42,540.
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What is the outlook for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index?
Based on the price performance of the DJIA over the past week, we should expect further recovery in the near-term support. The price target of the current uptrend has been adjusted to 43,400. Furthermore, according to our algorithm, the larger correction will go and may reach the unchanged level of 38,300. From that level, the DJIA is expected to continue the uptrend again up to the preliminary price target of 48,000 points.
Below is the chart of DJIA futures from mid-2024 with the most likely scenario plotted.
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