Publication date: February 20, 2025
It is Thursday, February 20, and the AEX is at 941 in the morning session. That is down 4 points (0.4%) from last week's reading.
What happened on the AEX in the past week
The AEX opened the week at 945 and managed to push through to 952 on Tuesday. From that point, in all probability, the first tentative step of the already expected correction was taken and the price fell to 937. Currently, the AEX is recovering from this decline.
What does this mean for sentiment on the AEX?
Sentiment on the AEX is positive for the longer term but there is room for an interim correction of 3 to 5 percent for the short term.
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What is the outlook for the AEX?
The position is neutral after achieving our price target at 945. Based on past weeks, the expectation is that the AEX will take a step back from the 945-950 zone for a while. This correction could push the AEX back into the 920-900 zone. From that zone, the AEX is expected to pick up the thread and round out the uptrend to our second price target at 980.
Above is the chart of the AEX over the past 2 months. The arrows indicate our already expected trend and the most likely scenario for the coming months.
What happened on the Nasdaq last week?
The Nasdaq futures are currently at 22,155 which is 285 points (1.3%) higher than last week's reading.
The Nasdaq futures opened the trading week at 22,235 points and then continued to fluctuate around this price.
What is the expectation for the Nasdaq future?
The price target of 22,000 points has been reached and the position is neutral. In case of a breakout and close above 22,450 points, there is still a modest ride up to 23,500 points. According to our algorithm, the long uptrend in the Nasdaq is nearing its end. This means that the possibility of a larger correction of 10 to 15% has increased. The view is neutral for the short term and we are waiting for the market to show its colors.
Note: As it looks now, the correction to the level of around 18,000 provides another fantastic opportunity to take a buy position.
Below is the chart of the Nasdaq futures over the past 12 months with the buy trigger and modest price target plotted and the expected upcoming correction of 10 to 15%.
What happened on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Index this past week?
The DJIA is currently trading at 44,616 points, which is 216 points (0.5%) higher than last week's reading.
The DJIA opened the week at 44,668. It is not experiencing any major upsets and is hovering around this price.
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What is the outlook for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index?
The longer-term expectation is positive but the DJIA has also increased the possibility of a 10-15% mid-term correction. The view and position are currently neutral and we have to wait and see. Equity markets in Europe and the US seem ready for an intermediate decline but there is no confirmation of this move yet. Neutral view due to too many variables.
Below is the chart of the DJIA futures over the past 12 months with the most likely scenario plotted. The level of around 40,000 points represents a prelude to the next buying opportunity.
Important items on the economic agenda for the week of Feb. 24 to Feb. 28:
Next week revolves around Friday afternoon because then the German Consumer Price Index will appear at 2 p.m. but in addition, at 2:30 p.m. the important core inflation figures will come out of the US. Other than that, no very important figures or events this coming week.
Disclaimer: Investing involves risk. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.