Publication date: April 10, 2025
It is Thursday, April 10, and the AEX is at 858 in the opening session. That is 20 points (3.5%) lower than last week's reading.
You must have heard about it in the media; in a nutshell, it was a tumultuous trading week. On Monday morning, there was considerable panic in the financial markets, and we sent out an additional Money Care containing the track record for the days that followed. The markets lived up to our expectations. This provided the desired clarity and some calm among our readers. We were fortunate to receive much appreciation, for which we thank you all very much. As soon as another special situation arises, we will again send an additional message.
What happened on the AEX last week?
After last Friday, the fence was already down, the AEX opened sharply lower on Monday morning. Specifically, the AEX was around 900 points on Wednesday evening, April 2, before Donald Trump's announcements. Thursday, April 3, the market did drop, but Friday, the AEX went through the hatch in a straight line with a low of 830. Monday morning, in the panic, we saw an AEX reading of 784. In a few trading days, that meant about 13% went off in a hurry. After Monday morning, the AEX bounced chaotically between 785 and 860 in the days that followed.
What does this mean for sentiment on the AEX?
Sentiment on the AEX is highly uncertain and hysterical. Volatility has once again increased sharply and last week reached its highest level in five years.
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What is the outlook for the AEX?
In the particularly volatile situation in which the markets currently find themselves, historical patterns decay, and scenarios are recalculated. The algorithmic system gives a clear new expectation of direction. At first, the algorithm still indicated that the correction could go up to 830; however, in the current situation, we have to look further down.
The most likely scenario indicates a couple of things:
Over the next few weeks, we should expect a very moveable and risky course in the 775-860 zone. This is a wide range but that's because of the big breakdowns. So this will continue for a while. So within that range we have to take into account large and unexpected turnouts. This is the recovery from last week's decline. However, the big correction is not over yet. The algorithm expects a new definitive low at around 710 after the messy recovery.
Then the major uptrend will be resumed, and we could be on to new highs above 950 again. So, we do not assume a long-term bear market (downtrend), but the correction in the major uptrend will be larger than expected due to the actions of U.S. policy. The expectation is, therefore, a few more weeks of uncertain markets with large outliers in the 775-860 range. Then complete of correction at 710 and then back up to 950+.
Above is the chart of the AEX over the past 2 months. The arrows indicate the most likely scenario for the coming months.
What happened on the Nasdaq last week?
The Nasdaq futures are currently at 19,135, which is 155 points (0.8%) higher than last week's reading. Although the Nasdaq futures are slightly higher, they also experienced a chaotic week.
The low was set in the panic on Monday morning at 16,460. After a roller-coaster ride, the Nasdaq futures reached a high at 19,387 on Wednesday evening. Currently, the future is trading around that level. With that, the price is currently back up over 17% from Monday morning's high.
What is the expectation for the Nasdaq future?
The new situation scenario issued for the AEX applies to most leading equity indices. The Nasdaq is no exception. We expect a risky and hectic recovery phase with very large lows between 16,000 and 19,600. Furthermore, the Nasdaq rounds out the major correction around the 15,000 level. Thereafter, the uptrend will continue towards the price target of 24,000.
Below is the chart of the Nasdaq futures over the past 8 months with the most likely scenario.
What happened on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Index this past week?
The DJIA is currently trading at 40,815 points, which is 485 points (1.2%) lower than last week's reading.
The DJIA experienced a similarly chaotic week. The low was set on Monday morning at 36,700 and the high on Thursday morning at 41,133. A real roller coaster ride in the DJIA over the past week as well. Currently, the DJIA is trading around its weekly high, running up another 12% from Monday morning's low.
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What is the outlook for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index?
As with the Nasdaq futures, in the most likely scenario, the algorithm expects the DJIA to enter a hectic recovery period with large swings within the 36,000 and 41,000 range. Risky period! The major correction will be completed at the 34,000 level. After that, the uptrend will continue with a price target of 48,000.
Below is the chart of the DJIA futures from November 2024 with the most likely scenario plotted.
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Disclaimer: Investing involves risk. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.