Publication Date: September 24, 2026
Our previous article on Prosus was published on February 26, 2026. At that time, the stock was trading around €44. We expected the price to stabilize around that level and then recover toward €50. That recovery never materialized. Prosus fell further, reaching a low of around €35 in mid-September. That is more than 20% below the February level and more than 45% below the November 2025 high of €64.
Remarkably, operating results actually improved significantly during the same period. That is why, despite the disappointing share price, we remain positive about Prosus in the long term. In this article, we discuss what has changed since February and why the market values Prosus so low.
For background information, please refer to our previous article. Click HERE for the article“Prosus: Technical Correction Presents Opportunities!”.
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What developments have taken place at Prosus since February 2026?
On June 29, Prosus presented its annual financial results for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026. Revenue from its own companies rose 57% to $9.7 billion, partly due to the acquisitions of Just Eat Takeaway.com and travel platform Despegar. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) rose by 84% to $1.3 billion. Free cash flow reached a record high of $1.5 billion.
Virtually all divisions contributed to this growth. The advertising platform OLX increased its profit margin to 48%, and the payment service PayU posted positive EBITDA for the first time. The Brazilian meal delivery service iFood improved its adjusted EBITDA by 56% to $400 million. The dividend rose by 40% to €0.28 per share.
Nevertheless, the stock price fell. The problem lies not in the past year but in the year ahead. On May 12, CEO Fabricio Bloisi described the 2027 fiscal year as an “execution year” in a letter to shareholders. Prosus plans to make significant additional investments in iFood to defend its market share in Brazil against new entrants Keeta (owned by China’s Meituan) and 99Food. These companies are trying to win over customers with aggressive discounts. As a result, iFood’s adjusted EBITDA is expected to drop from $400 million to between $100 million and $150 million.
At Just Eat Takeaway.com, too, the recovery is taking longer than hoped. The total number of orders was still about 7% lower than a year earlier, although pilot cities are showing growth of up to 25%. On May 12, the stock fell 8.3%, its largest one-day drop since February 2025.
The competition in Brazil has intensified since then. In late August, iFood filed a complaint with the competition authority CADE against Keeta for alleged predatory pricing. These are prices below cost intended to drive competitors out of the market.
Tencent and the Gap with True Value
Tencent remains the biggest factor in Prosus’s valuation. Tencent is one of the world’s largest technology companies. The Chinese conglomerate is behind WeChat, the all-in-one app that over a billion people use to send messages, make payments, and run errands. In addition, Tencent is the world’s largest video game publisher. It owns Riot Games, known for League of Legends, and is a major shareholder in Epic Games, the creator of Fortnite.
Prosus owns approximately 23% of Tencent. That stake accounts for about three-quarters of Prosus’s total assets. Tencent posted solid results in the second quarter. Revenue rose by 11%, and advertising revenue grew by 22%, partly thanks to AI.
Prosus’s intrinsic value is around €60 per share. This is the sum of all its holdings, divided by the number of shares. With a share price of about €36, investors are paying roughly 60 cents per euro of underlying value. The share price is thus about 40% below book value.
Prosus is trying to narrow that gap by buying back its own shares at a rate of about $5 billion per year. Between September 14 and 18, the company repurchased over 2.1 million shares at an average price of €35.77. The lower the share price, the more value each euro spent on buybacks generates for the remaining shareholders.
What is the analysts’ outlook on Prosus’s stock price?
Analysts remain predominantly positive. The vast majority have a “buy” recommendation, and not a single analyst recommends selling. The average price target is around €62. That is slightly lower than the €66 at the time of our previous article, but still well over 70% above the current price.
There is a wide range of estimates. UBS has the highest price target at €80. On September 17, JPMorgan reaffirmed a “buy” rating with a price target of €73. On September 11, Jefferies lowered its price target from €66.50 to €55.90 but maintained its “buy” rating. The bank lowered its expected EBITDA for 2027 by 7% and for 2028 by 15% due to lower margins in Latin America and at Just Eat. Goldman Sachs is the most cautious, with a neutral rating and a price target of €39. The bank values iFood and Just Eat Takeaway.com significantly lower than the rest of the market. The common thread is clear: valuations are low, but the coming year will require patience.
What is Yelza’s outlook on Prosus’s stock price?
Below, we present Prosus’s stock price chart since early 2025, including what our algorithm deems the most likely scenario.
Source: TradingView, analysis by Yelza
Our model expects one final downward move in the short term. During this move, the support level around €35 may be temporarily broken, with the next support level at €33. We expect the correction to run its course between €35 and €33. After that , our model forecasts a strong recovery. The first price target is €45, which is 25% above the current price. After a brief pullback toward €42.50, a second upward wave will follow, reaching €51. Around that level, our model anticipates another pause with a pullback to approximately €48.
Only then will there be room for the major move. The long-term price target remains at €69, in line with our February target. From the current price, that represents nearly a doubling. This timeline aligns with the fundamental outlook. Prosus’s investment period runs through the end of March 2027. If iFood and Just Eat Takeaway.com start generating higher profits again after that, the recovery will gain a fundamental footing.
Conclusion
Prosus is delivering better operating results than ever, but the stock price tells a different story. Investments in iFood and Just Eat Takeaway.com are weighing on profits in the current fiscal year, and Tencent remains the dominant factor in the valuation. Our model expects one final shakeout in the short term toward the range between €35 and €33.
Those who entered the position around €44 in February may consider gradually adding to their position in the event of further weakness, thereby lowering their average purchase price. For those who do not yet hold a position, the most attractive entry range is between €35 and €33. Those who do not want to wait may consider taking a small initial position at the current price and expanding it if the price falls back into that range. Such a staggered entry reduces the risk of missing the exact bottom. The first price target is €45, and the long-term price target remains €69, with a horizon of mid-2028. The half-year results, which are expected to be released in late November, will be the first real test of whether the investments in Brazil and Europe are paying off.
Disclaimer: Investing involves risks. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts’ own insights and experiences. They are therefore intended solely for educational purposes.