On March 5, 2026, we published our previous article on gold. At that time, the price of gold was around $5,600, and the rise had been exceptionally sharp in a short period of time. According to our model, the likelihood of a technical correction was high, as the price had risen too far relative to the underlying trend.
That expectation has since been realized. Gold has fallen back to approximately $4,290, marking a decline of more than 23% from its recent peak. As a result, the market is once again at a critical turning point. The correction has been sharp, but the long-term outlook remains constructive for now. In this article, we examine the recent price movement, the main causes behind the decline, and our outlook on future price trends.
Did you miss our previous article? Read our March 5, 2026, article here:“Gold: Time for a Technical Correction After an Exceptional Rise.”
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A Look Back at the Correction
After reaching a historic peak of $5,598 per troy ounce on January 29, 2026, the gold price came under increasing pressure. The earlier overheating gave way to profit-taking and a clear technical pullback. Gold initially fell back toward $4,250 and later even tested the $3,900 range.
This means that a large part of the expected correction is now behind us. The coming period will primarily revolve around the question of whether gold can form a solid bottom around these levels, or whether the support zone must first be tested again before the upward trend resumes.
The decline was deepened by several factors. The Federal Reserve once again kept interest rates unchanged and indicated that inflation remains a concern. Prolonged high interest rates are typically unfavorable for gold, as gold itself does not yield interest. The stronger dollar also put pressure on the price of gold, as gold is traded globally in dollars.
At the same time, structural demand for gold remains strong. Central banks, in particular, continue to buy gold as part of their broader strategy to reduce their dependence on the U.S. dollar. This provides underlying support in the market and prevents the correction from automatically being viewed as a trend reversal.
What is the analysts’ outlook on the price of gold?
Following the recent decline, several major banks have revised their forecasts for gold. Most forecasts have become slightly more cautious, but the overall outlook remains positive. UBS sees room for a recovery toward $5,500 by the end of 2026. Morgan Stanley expects a recovery toward $5,200 in the second half of the year. Goldman Sachs anticipates a price target around $5,400, while J.P. Morgan considers a move toward an average of $6,000 in the fourth quarter of 2026 a possibility.
As a result, the outlook among analysts remains constructive. The correction is primarily viewed as a pullback following an exceptionally strong rally, rather than the immediate end of the longer-term uptrend. The range between $4,000 and $4,300 is seen as a key area to watch in the coming weeks.
What is Yelza’s outlook on the price of gold?
Below you’ll find the gold price chart covering the past year. The chart shows both the arrows from our previous article and the most likely scenario for the coming period.
After peaking around $5,600, a correction followed toward $4,250. Gold then briefly rebounded toward $4,850, after which the price came under pressure again. As expected, a low was subsequently reached around $4,000. The gold price now appears to be working on a recovery toward $4,900.
Our model takes into account that the zone around $3,900 may be tested again in the coming months. This does not necessarily have to be a negative signal. A double bottom around this level could, in fact, provide a stronger technical foundation for the next upward move.
As long as gold manages to stabilize above this zone, the long-term outlook remains positive. A convincing closing price above $4,900 would further improve the technical picture. In that case, there would once again be room for a move toward the long-term price target of $6,200.
The coming period may remain volatile. The gold price is sensitive to interest rate expectations, inflation figures, geopolitical tensions, and the dollar’s performance. Nevertheless, according to our model, the underlying trend remains intact as long as the key support zone around $3,900 holds.
Conclusion
Following the sharp decline, gold is once again in a critical phase. The steep correction has removed much of the previous overheating from the market, making the risk-reward ratio more attractive once again.
For the coming period, the zone around $3,900 remains particularly important. As long as gold manages to stay above that level, the long-term technical outlook remains constructive. A breakout above $4,900 would then provide clearer confirmation that the market is regaining strength.
According to our model, this means gold remains an attractive investment for the coming months. The market appears to be forming a new base, while the long-term price target of $6,200 remains intact. As soon as our model signals a clear resumption of the uptrend, we will publish a new update.
Disclaimer: Investing involves risks. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts’ own insights and experiences. They are therefore intended for educational purposes only.