Publication date: April 3, 2026
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Outlook:inflation US
In this weekend Money Care report, we provide an overview of macroeconomic developments that could potentially cause additional movement in financial markets in the coming week.
Review of the past week
Financial markets last week were largely dominated by geopolitical developments in the Middle East and the release of U.S. labor market data (Non-Farm Payrolls) on Good Friday.
The AEX opened Monday morning expectantly at 958 points, but managed to rise towards 975 points in the following days. This rise was partly driven by statements by Donald Trump, who gave positive signals about a possible end to the conflict with Iran.
In response, equity markets rose about 2%, gold prices rose about 5% and oil prices fell about 10%. This underscores how strongly geopolitical developments are currently affecting financial markets.
On Wednesday evening, Donald Trump spoke again. This speech was of a more bellicose nature causing stock markets to fall again about 2%, gold prices fell 5% and oil became 10% more expensive again. This clearly indicates that the markets are under great influence from the developments in the Iran war, making price movements currently volatile and difficult to assess.
On Friday, stock markets were closed, but in the United States the monthly labor figures were announced. The figures outlined a positive trend in the labor market. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% in March, below expectations of 0.3%, easing inflation fears somewhat. In addition, 178,000 jobs were added in March, significantly more than the 65,000 expected. The unemployment rate came in lower than expected at 4.3%. Equity markets are expected to interpret these labor market figures as a slightly positive boost.
Upcoming week:
On Monday, April 6 (Easter Monday), major European stock markets will remain closed. In the United States, however, markets will be open, with investors' attention this week focused primarily on the release of U.S. inflation data. Thursday at 2:30 p.m., the core PCE price index will be released, a key indicator that measures price movements of goods and services, excluding food and energy.
Friday, April 10 at 2:30 p.m. follows the release of the consumer price index (CPI) for March. This is the key measure of inflation and plays a crucial role in Federal Reserve monetary policy.
With increased inflation fears, a deviation from expectations can immediately lead to increased volatility in financial markets. Inflation is expected to remain stable around 2.4% year-on-year in March. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is estimated at 2.5%. On a monthly basis, an increase of 0.3% is expected.
These expectations seem relatively modest, also given the sharp rise in oil prices in March. As a result, there is a possibility that inflation could be higher than currently estimated. In that scenario, equity markets could come under pressure, while gold prices could also react negatively.
In addition, developments in the Middle East are expected to continue to play an important role and thus cause considerable volatility in the markets. Due to the high level of uncertainty, further developments remain difficult to predict.
The stock market agenda week 14
The following is an overview of the most important macroeconomic publications for the coming week. These figures may cause additional volatility in the financial markets.
Monday, April 6, 2026:
Europe:
Tuesday, April 7, 2026:
No major macroeconomic publications.
Wednesday, April 8, 2026:
No major macroeconomic publications.
Thursday, April 9, 2026:
United States:
Friday, April 10, 2026:
United States:
Please note that publication dates and times may change. Please consult the official communication channels of the relevant institutions and governments for the most up-to-date information.
Disclaimer: Investing involvesrisks. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.