ASML was the first major European tech company to report its second-quarter results this morning, and the market is reacting enthusiastically. The stock price surged by more than 6 percent at the opening bell. On May 21, we published an update on ASML, Besi, and ASMi, in which we adjusted the price target for ASML to €1,525. Less than two months later, that target has already been surpassed. It’s time to take stock and redefine our outlook for the coming period.
We recommend that you first read our article from May 21, 2026, titled“: ASML, Besi, and ASMi: update with new price targets.” That way, you’ll be fully up to speed on the background. You can find the article HERE.
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What developments have taken place at ASML since May 2026?
This morning, ASML raised its revenue forecast for 2026 for the second time this year. The company is now targeting revenue between €43 and €45 billion, up from a previous forecast of up to €40 billion. Customers’ continued investments in AI are driving this upward revision.
The second-quarter figures themselves were also strong. Revenue rose by nearly 21 percent to €9.3 billion, well above the €8.85 billion analysts had expected. Net income increased by 26 percent to €2.9 billion, compared to an expectation of €2.64 billion. The outlook for the third quarter also exceeds the consensus: ASML forecasts revenue between €11 and €12 billion with a gross margin of 55 to 57 percent, compared to 54 percent in the previous quarter.
CEO Christophe Fouquet points to the sustained demand for advanced logic and memory chips, driven by ongoing AI investments. According to him, customers are accelerating their plans to expand production capacity, and he describes the demand as very strong. ASML is responding to this by increasing its own production capacity for EUV and DUV machines by 30 percent this year, with the next round of expansion planned for 2028.
The geopolitical factor remains a point of concern. China accounted for 14 percent of revenue from machine sales in the past quarter, a clear decline from 19 percent in the previous quarter and 36 percent a year ago. For the full year, ASML still expects China’s share to be around 20 percent. U.S. export restrictions on the most advanced EUV machines remain a recurring theme in the relationship between Washington and Veldhoven.
Despite the strong figures and a stock price gain of nearly 69 percent since the start of this year, ASML is lagging somewhat behind the broader chip sector: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is already up about 76 percent this year.
What is the analysts’ outlook on ASML’s stock price?
In recent weeks, the vast majority of analysts have become more positive. Several major banks had already raised their price targets in the run-up to the earnings report: Morgan Stanley to €1,830, Deutsche Bank to €1,800, JPMorgan to €1,900, Susquehanna to €2,350, and Bernstein to over €2,300. The average price target among analysts was already around €1,930 before the earnings report. With revenue forecasts raised again today, it stands to reason that some of these targets will be adjusted upward further in the coming days.
What is Yelza’s outlook on ASML’s stock price?
Below you’ll find ASML’s stock price chart starting in early 2025. The arrows show the most likely scenario at a glance.
Our model projects the stock price to first surge from current levels to the €1,890 range, a level in line with the most optimistic analyst targets at this time. From there, we anticipate a correction phase that could bring the price back down to around €1,500. This would not signal a break in the uptrend, but rather a healthy pause following the strong rally of recent months. From that level, our system expects the next, more powerful upward move to begin, with a 12-month price target of €2,350.
This places Yelza at the upper end of analyst expectations, and we anticipate a continuation of the structural growth story surrounding AI and advanced chip manufacturing.
Conclusion
The price target of €1,525 that we set on May 21 has been more than met at the current price. With its second revenue increase this year, ASML confirms that the underlying demand for chip manufacturing equipment, driven by AI, is not a temporary phenomenon. Our system’s new price target is €2,350.
If you already hold a position in ASML, you may consider holding onto it as the price approaches €1,890. In the event of a correction toward €1,500, you might consider expanding your position or entering the market now, with an eye toward the next upward move toward €2,350. Those who do not yet have a position and would rather not chase the current rally can wait for the announced correction phase as a more attractive entry point.
Disclaimer: Investing involves risks. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts’ own insights and experiences. They are therefore intended for educational purposes only.