At the end of January, we noted that Dutch high-tech funds were off to a strong start. Since then, share prices have surged and the price targets we set earlier have largely been achieved. This week, ASML announced its figures, which gives reason to take another look at the sector and adjust our expectations.
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Recent figures and outlook ASML
Yesterday, ASML released its quarterly figures for the first quarter of 2026. The results were better than expected on almost all fronts and confirm the company's strong position within the chip sector. ASML achieved total net sales of €8.8 billion, putting it at the upper end of its own range of €8.2 billion to €8.9 billion. Gross margin was 53%, also slightly above expectations. Net profit came in at €2.8 billion.
Year-on-year growth is also visible. In Q1 2025, sales were still at €7.7 billion with a net profit of €2.4 billion, which for Q1 of 2026 represents a profit growth of about 17%. The service division grew further to €2.5 billion and a total of 67 new and 12 used lithography machines were sold.
The most important development lies in the outlook. ASML raised its annual forecast and now expects sales of €36 billion to €40 billion for 2026. For the second quarter, the company is counting on sales between €8.4 billion and €9.0 billion, with a gross margin of 51% to 52%. Growth is driven by strong investments in AI infrastructure by chip makers.
How did the market react?
Despite the strong numbers, the stock market reaction was mixed. The stock opened higher on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange, reaching a daily high of €1,307, but sentiment turned during the day. In the end, ASML closed 4.76% lower at €1,230, down over €50 from its opening.
This reaction shows that the market is currently struggling with the stock's valuation. Although the fundamentals are strong and the outlook remains positive, a lot of optimism is already priced in at the current price. With a high valuation, even small setbacks in short-term expectations or a cautious outlook can lead to firm price reactions. This explains why the stock came under pressure despite the strong underlying story.
Review of our view:
In our January 29 article, we indicated that the price could first experience a larger correction to around €1,000 before starting the ride to €1,500. The stock reached a low of €1,060, close to our stated entry level. Those who bought at that point were able to build a nice position. Most investors will have taken profits earlier and now no longer have a position. The new arrows in our chart below indicate how we see the scenario now.
The Q1 numbers confirm that ASML's fundamental story is as strong as ever. The global investment wave in AI translates directly into a rising order book and an upwardly revised revenue forecast. Based on this, we are raising our long-term price target to €1,700.
In the short term, we expect that the price can continue to rise towards €1,400, a level at which it may be wise to take (partial) profits. Next, our algorithm foresees a healthy correction towards €1,050 - €1,100. We see this zone as an attractive entry point for investors who want to position themselves for the next upward movement towards €1,700.
Besi
In our previous articles on Besi, we mentioned several moments when it was interesting to build a position and consider (partial) profits later. For example, in early 2025, we indicated that the stock was buyable around €95, then later indicated levels of €135 and €170 as moments to expand the position. The price target at that time was set at €200, and later raised to €210.
In January of this year, we indicated that the price could continue to rise towards €190, a level we saw as a logical time to consider taking profits. Meanwhile, the stock is trading around €221, well past this zone and the previous expectation has largely been fulfilled. In the chart below, we show how we expect Besi's further price movement.
Our algorithm calculates a scenario for Besi in which the price can still rise to around €235. Then we expect a significant correction towards €175, a level that has acted as support several times in the past. The way then opens up to a new, ambitious long-term target of €300.
The previous price target has been more than achieved. The price can rise a bit further towards €235, but is in a zone sensitive to a correction. We suggest considering (if the position has not yet been unwound) taking profits between the current price and €235 and waiting for the drop to €175 as a re-entry opportunity, with a new long-term price target at €300.
ASM International
ASM International has shown a turbulent but on balance positive share price performance in recent months. The stock rose sharply and is now approaching the zone around €800, the price target we issued earlier this year. At the time of writing, the price is trading around €769, which means that the set price target has almost been reached and the stock is in an interesting phase.
As the chart shows, the price has found its way up after a sharp decline earlier this year to levels around €630. Our algorithm indicates that the share price could tap the €800 zone again. That is the time to consider profits. After that, we foresee a correction towards €650, followed by the ride to the new long-term price target of €875.
Conclusion
The big picture is clear: ASML, Besi and ASM International, after strong gains, are in a phase where corrections are not only logical but also healthy. This does not change the fundamental picture. The structural growth drivers, such as global AI investment, increasing chip demand and a growing installed base, remain fully intact and support the long-term upward trend.
For investors, this phase is all about discipline. Taking timely profits and patiently waiting out corrections increases the chances of re-entering at attractive levels for the next upward move.
Below is an overview of our current view for each stock:
ASML | Current share price: €1,265
Strong Q1 figures with revenue of €8.8 billion and net profit of €2.8 billion. Outlook raised to €36-40 billion.
Rise towards €1,400 we see as a time to consider earnings.
Correction towards €1,050 - €1,100 is expected to offer an attractive re-entry moment.
Long-term price target: €1,700
Disclaimer: Investing involves risks. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.