Publication date: Feb. 20, 2025
ASM International N.V. (ASMI) will sound familiar to many investors but remains in the shadow behind the large and popular ASML in terms of familiarity. Given its past performance and our expectations for the future, ASMI deserves our full attention. In this article, we look at the company, compare ASMI to the other three technology companies in the AEX, and define its outlook and opportunities.
On Nov. 20, we already wrote about ASMI, in which we discussed general company data and the company's impact on the AEX.
Read it here: ASM International NV
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Brief introduction ASM International:
ASMI (Advanced Semiconductor Materials International), in full ASM International N.V., is a Dutch technology company founded in 1968 and headquartered in Almere, the Netherlands, specializing in the development and production of equipment for the semiconductor industry. It competes with ASML and Applied Materials. The company supplies its technology to major chip manufacturers, including TSMC, Samsung, and Intel. Sales are about €2.6 billion a year but the target for 2025 is at least €3.2 billion.
This is largely achieved in Asia (67%) and to a lesser extent in the US (21%) and Europe (12%). About 4,500 people are employed, mainly in Asia and the US.
What is the current situation at ASMI
Currently, ASMI is in a period of growth and innovation within the semiconductor industry. As already reported, ASMI recently confirmed its financial outlook for 2025, despite new U.S. export restrictions. ASMI expects sales between €3.2 billion and €3.6 billion for the year.
In the third quarter of 2024, ASMI achieved record sales of €779 million, up 26% from the previous year. This growth is partly driven by the introduction of new technologies that offer high yields and productivity for customers looking to produce more efficient microchips.
The stock price is moving around €575. This gives ASMI a market capitalization of €28 billion. This makes the company the third highest-capitalized publicly traded technology company in the Netherlands after ASML and Prosus. BE Semiconductor is number four.
How does ASMI's performance compare to ASML, Prosus, and BESI?
In this case, we compare share price performance over the past five years.
Prosus shows a slightly different picture compared to the other three. In the case of Prosus, the sharp decline of around 64% in 2021 stands out, but the strong rise in recent years is also striking. Prosus has risen more than 150% from its lowest point and is heading hard towards our initial price target of €50 (see: Prosus: advance tastes like more).
Over the past five years, Prosus has had a price gain of 60% but also an interim decline of 64% and is currently in a strong phase.
ASML has shown a share price gain of 198% over the past five years. After the peak in the summer of 2024, the share price fell as much as 40%. Currently, ASML stands around €725 and our price target is €970.
See our article: ASML: done with correction; through to € 970!
ASML is typical of the technology sector; high performance, high expectation, and high volatility.
BE Semiconductor (BESI) will be covered in a future edition of Money Care. BESI has outperformed ASML and Prosus over the past five years. With a price gain of 321%, BESI stock is a pleasant possession. However, BESI will also be a worrisome possession at times because the stock had to suffer a 50% interim decline. Because of the large turnovers, it is sometimes difficult but the outlook for BESI is very good as far as we are concerned. As reported, we will come back to this in a later edition.
And then, of course, ASM International. As far as we are concerned the most pleasant asset and thus the winner. Over the past five years, ASMI has achieved the highest price gain of 473% and has the lowest interim decline of 36%.
The current share price is €575 and we have a target price of €790. Still, it takes some watching and there are two scenarios. In the Forecast, we discuss this in more detail.
What is the outlook for ASMI?
Both technical and fundamental analysts are positive with an average price target of € 688 within a year.
We are positive about ASMI but our algorithm indicates that the most likely scenario is that the rise to €790 will be preceded by a correction of about 15 to 20%. The price will then enter the support zone around € 455. According to the algorithm, this is a perfect time to consider a buy position.
The alternative scenario is the absence of the correction and a breakout at a closing price above €635. This also provides a trigger to consider a buy position for the ride to the €790,-.
Conclusion
As far as we are concerned, ASMI is the most enjoyable stock in the Tech sector in the Netherlands. With a current price of €575 and a price target of €790, you might consider taking the stock into your portfolio. Do follow the railroad timetable because if you buy now, there is a good possibility that the stock will go through a correction to around € 455 in the coming months. This is a support zone and a good time to buy or expand. With a closing price above €635, there is again a time to consider buying or expanding. All this for the ride to the
€ 790,-.
ASMI will release its fiscal year 2024 figures Feb. 25 at noon.
Disclaimer: Investing involves risk. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.