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AirFrance-KLM: Missed the first flight? Catch the next one!

Written by Yelza blogger | Aug 22, 2025 12:28:03 PM

Publication date: August 21, 2025

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In the summer of 2024, we covered AirFrance-KLM. The Dutch pride of aviation was in a difficult period at the time. The share price was at the historic low of €9. In the article, we gave a zone of €8.- to €6.- in which the bottom would be found before recovering to the €11.- to €13.- zone.

Today we are one year on and the share price has indeed found the bottom at €7,- and is now quoted again at €14,-. Time for an update. In this article we discuss the background to the price movement and determine the future outlook.

Read the previous article on AirFrance-KLM HERE. That way you are fully informed.





What has happened at AirFrance-KLM in the past 12 months?

First, let's look at the price chart from July 2024. Indeed, we see the bottom at €7 in early 2025 and later in April after the announcement of import duties by the US, the share price again tests the bottom at €7. Furthermore, the strong positive outliers stand out. We explain this in the text below the chart.



In the summer of 2024, AirFrance-KLM was still facing strikes, technical problems, weak financial results and significant debt.

At the end of 2024, the tide turned. Despite a halved annual profit for 2024, Air France-KLM closed strong in the final quarter of 2024. Shares rose more than 19% thanks to better results, strong demand and lower fuel costs. The company also reported an operating profit of €396 million, well above the expected €160 million. Growth continued in the first half of the year. In the second quarter, sales rose 6.2% to €736 million. In addition, the operating margin rose to 8.7%.

Air France-KLM increased its stake in SAS from 19.9% to 60.5%, promoting consolidation in European aviation. This creates significant synergy potential. Partnerships with AerCap (engine support) and TotalEnergies (sustainable aviation fuel) strengthened operational capacity, reliability and sustainability position.

Strong numbers improved financial health. As of the end of March 2025, Air France-KLM had as much as €9.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents and net debt had fallen to €6.9 billion, significantly strengthening the balance sheet.


What is AirFrance-KLM's overall analyst expectation?

Analysts at international banks and asset managers are cautious. The majority recommend hold, with price targets generally below the current market price (between €8 and €12). While earnings growth expectations for 2025 are positive, there is clearly caution about near-term price potential. The consensus among analysts is that the stock is trading around overvalued levels.

What is our price expectation for AirFrance-KLM?

Our algorithmic model gives a high probability that the strong rise of recent months will have a follow through in the short term. The rise may therefore continue from the current €14 to around €18. This is a preliminary final sprint of almost 30%. From that level, the correction will take effect and the overvaluation will be reduced. The correction may bring the price back to around €14. However, the long-term price target is €24.

 


 

Conclusion:

AirFrance-KLM comes from great heights and deep valleys. Six years ago the share was quoted well above €50 and in April of 2025 it bottomed out at €9. Since the end of 2024, the situation at AirFrance-KLM has improved significantly.

The share price has experienced considerable turbulence for years, which makes investing in this stock risky. However, this also gives room for percentage gains. At the current price of €14, there is still potential for the coming year up to around €24. You can consider taking a modest position in your portfolio. For the short term, however, keep in mind that there will still be considerable fluctuations.

Disclaimer: Investing involves risks. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.