image_here
ABN AMRO Bank N.V.
ABN AMRO Bank was created by the merger of Algemene Bank Nederland (ABN) and Amsterdamsche en Rotterdamsche Bank (AMRO) on September 21, 1991. After ING Bank and Rabobank, ABN AMRO Bank is considered the third-largest bank in the Netherlands. The bank has a market capitalisation of approximately €23.5 billion and is 30% owned by the Dutch State. In comparison, ING Bank has a market capitalisation of €63 billion, making it much larger.
ABN AMRO Bank currently has about 22,000 employees. The projected revenue for 2025 is €6.3 billion and the forecast for net profit for this year is €2.4 to €2.5 billion.
What are the developments at ABN AMRO Bank in 2025?
In the past year, there have been three important developments that we would like to explain.
ABN AMRO recently announced its intention to acquire NIBC Bank for approximately €960 million. With this, the Dutch bank intends to strengthen its position in its home market and in Germany/Belgium. The deal is anticipated in the second half of 2026, subject to approval. At the same time, the bank announced a review of its brand strategy in mortgages; among other things, the Moneyou label will be phased out.
The Dutch state reduced its stake in ABN AMRO to around 30% in May 2025, reducing the bank's dependence on direct government supervision/decision-making.
ABN AMRO announced plans for a sweeping cost and staffing approach last week: some 5,200 full-time jobs will be cut through 2028 as part of its drive to lower its cost-income ratio and increase profitability. Among other things, the bank plans to phase out outdated IT systems and deploy artificial intelligence (AI) to simplify operations.
In 2025, ABN AMRO made significant strides on several fronts: financially, profitability is solid, but not yet at the level of ambition the bank sets for itself in the longer term. Strategically, the bank opts for growth through acquisition (NIBC) and operational efficiency improvements, while the reduction of state influence gives room for more free market operation.
What is the view of international analysts on ABN AMRO Bank?
The analysts are mostly positive, but with limited room for share price gains from the current level of around €29. The consensus among technical analysts and fundamental analysts is Buy with a price target between €28.50 and €31.
Positive outliers are Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, with a target price for the next 12 months at €32.50.
What is our view on the ABN AMRO share price?
Below is the price chart as of January 1, 2025, showing the most likely scenario.
Clear is the powerful upward price movement of over 100%. The top of €28.50 has been broken at the closing price and is ready for the intermediate sprint to €31. After the correction, our system expects a final sprint to eventually €32 in 2026. For the period thereafter, the stock is expected to correct as much as 25%.
We assess the developments somewhat cautiously. We assess a relatively larger acquisition in combination with a very substantial staff reduction as risky. The bank is going to support this process by using artificial intelligence (AI). This is a technically progressive vision whose outcome is uncertain as far as we are concerned.
Technically and fundamentally, ABN AMRO Bank could benefit from developments in the coming year and rise another 10 to 15% as a result. For the longer term, we are cautious.
Conclusion:
ABN AMRO Bank has already made most of the expected price movement. There is still room for a final sprint of 10 to 15%. The path of an acquisition and the sharp reduction of the workforce is progressive but risky. We are cautious.
If you are a short-term investor, you can consider including the stock in the portfolio with a target price of €31 (+7%). Then you can consider picking up the stock again after the correction at €28.50 with a price target €32 (+12.3%). This can only be considered for investors who are short in the market and want to profit from relatively short price movements.
Long-term investors who have the stock in their portfolio can consider taking advantage of the expected momentum and taking profits around €31. Then you can consider picking up the stock again after the larger correction around €24.
Disclaimer: Investing involves risk. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.