In recent months, gold has once again demonstrated just how volatile the precious metals market can be. After a quiet summer hovering around $4,000, the price rose by more than 14% in just three weeks in August, reaching nearly $4,650. A reversal followed in early September. Strong statements from the new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh and rising tensions around the Strait of Hormuz pushed the price back toward $4,300. For investors, this once again raises the question of where gold is headed in the coming months.
In this article, we discuss the most important developments since our last update, the current outlook from major banks, and our own price forecast. Our previous article from June 18, 2026:“Gold at a Major Turning Point, $6,200 Price Target Remains Intact,” can be found HERE.image_here
What has happened with gold since June 2026?
At the time of our previous article, the correction from the peak of $5,598 was largely behind us, and gold was trading around $4,300. That stabilization continued in the months that followed. Until early August, the price fluctuated mainly around $4,000, a level that investors considered a solid bottom.
A strong rally followed starting in early August. A series of weak U.S. economic data, including a disappointing jobs report and falling inflation, significantly reduced the likelihood of an interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Lower interest rates make gold more attractive, as the precious metal itself does not yield interest.
In addition, central banks worldwide purchased a record amount of nearly 289 metric tons of gold in the second quarter, 62% more than a year earlier. This combination drove the price from approximately $4,000 to nearly $4,650 in three weeks. This was the sharpest rise since January.
At the end of August, sentiment shifted again. Increased expectations of interest rate hikes, following statements by Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh about seriously combating inflation, coincided with an escalation of tensions in the Middle East. U.S. troops attacked an island near the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Iran to respond with counterattacks on the United Arab Emirates and Jordan. The resulting rise in oil prices once again fueled inflation concerns. This is typically negative for gold, as it increases the likelihood of higher interest rates. As a result, gold fell from its three-month high back to its current level of approximately $4,300.
The coming weeks will once again be decisive. On September 10 and 11, new U.S. inflation figures for August will be released, and on September 15 and 16, the Fed will meet to decide on interest rates. Both developments could be decisive for the future direction of the gold price.
What is the analysts’ outlook on gold?
On balance, major banks remain positive about gold, even after the recent pullback. Goldman Sachs raised its price target for the end of 2026 to $4,900, driven by sustained buying interest from central banks looking to further diversify their reserves. Bank of America maintains a price target of $4,360 for the fourth quarter, while some analysts at JPMorgan do not rule out a scenario of $6,000 this year if demand from central banks persists. The divergent price targets show that opinions differ on the expected pace of growth, but that virtually all major players continue to see the trend pointing upward.
Analysts view structural demand from central banks as the main pillar supporting the gold price. Central banks are diversifying their reserves to reduce their dependence on individual currencies, a trend that most analysts expect to continue in the coming years.
What is Yelza’s outlook on the price of gold?
Below, we present the gold price chart starting in mid-March 2025. The arrows provide an at-a-glance overview of the scenario we consider most likely for the coming period.
Source: TradingView, analysis by Yelza
From the current level of approximately $4,300, our model first sees room for a further rise toward $4,850. After that, we expect a corrective phase in which the price will pull back to the $3,800 range. This pattern is consistent with recent months, during which strong rallies were consistently followed by a pullback before the underlying uptrend resumed.
Following this correction, our model forecasts a new and stronger upward move toward $5,600. Within that rise, we anticipate a brief pause before the trend completes its run toward our unchanged long-term price target of $6,200.
Conclusion
Gold remains a volatile but structurally bullish market, and the recent pullback to $4,300 fits entirely within this broader picture. Our price target of $6,200 therefore remains unchanged.
Those who do not yet hold a position in gold can use a potential decline toward $3,800 as an entry point. Investors who already hold a position may consider holding onto it and potentially adding to it in the event of a further decline, in order to take full advantage of the expected rally toward $6,200. In the short term, the market may continue to fluctuate erratically, but the underlying factors are supporting gold,such as ongoing geopolitical tensions and demand for safe-haven assets remain intact for now.
Disclaimer: Investing involves risks. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts’ own insights and experiences. They are therefore intended for educational purposes only.