Publication date: June 5, 2025
It is Thursday, June 5. The AEX is at 923 in the morning session, 1 point (0.1%) lower than last week's reading.
What happened on the AEX in the past week?
On balance, little happened on the AEX in the past week. In the first days of the week, the AEX was low at the 912 level and placed the preliminary high on Wednesday at 927. We have seen this pattern for four weeks. Barring the few brief outliers to the 910 and 934 levels, the AEX has consistently returned to its current level of around 920-925.
What does this mean for sentiment on the AEX?
Sentiment on the AEX can be characterized as wait-and-see. The market is waiting for important macroeconomic figures and developments around international trade barriers.
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What is the expectation of the AEX?
In our algorithm's most likely scenario, the AEX is setting up for a further rise. In the short term, the AEX may break once more at the bottom of the current trading range and test the 900-896 level. From there, the market can initiate a move towards the 952 level to start the next big ride up. The long-term price target remains 1,050.
This means that a speculative buy position can be considered around 900. A close above 935 will also allow a buy position to be considered.
Above is the chart of the AEX as of the end of 2024. The arrows indicate the most likely scenario for the coming months.
What happened on the Nasdaq over the past week?
The Nasdaq futures are at 21,740 on Thursday morning, June 5, which is 130 points (1.9%) higher than last week's reading.
The Nasdaq futures are performing strongly. Over the past week, the low is 21,160 and the high is 21,800. The price rise was almost without hesitation.
What is the expectation for the Nasdaq's future?
The most likely scenario in the short term is a test of the 22,400. Then a correction to around 21,250 before heading toward the first price target at 24,000.
A speculative buy position can be considered around 21,250. With a close above 22,400, a buy position can also be considered.
Below is the chart of the Nasdaq futures from January with the most likely scenario.
What happened on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Index this past week?
The DJIA is currently trading at 42,560 points, which is 320 points (0.75%) higher than last week's reading.
The DJIA is showing a sideways pattern over the past week.
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What is the outlook for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index?
From the current level, there is room for a further decline to around 41,200. Then up to 44,000. The price target remains 48,000.
Below is the chart of the DJIA futures from the end of 2024 with the most likely scenario plotted.
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