Publication date: Oct. 30, 2025
It is Thursday, October 30. The AEX notes 977 in the morning session. That is 9 points (0.9%) higher than last week's reading.
What happened on the AEX over the past week?
On balance, the AEX experienced another positive week. On Monday, the index opened strongly at 984 and reached the record low of 986 on the price board the same day. Then the AEX corrected 1.3% to 973 in short order. Thursday morning, the market recovered slightly on the opening.
What does this mean for sentiment on the AEX?
Overall sentiment on the AEX is underlying positive.
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What is the outlook for the AEX?
In the short term, our algorithm's most likely scenario is that the AEX will set a new top around 995 and then enter a larger correction that could take it back to 952. With the weekly top at 986, the AEX is in the higher regions of the short-term trend, increasing the possibility of a price decline.
Next, the rise to the longer-term price target of 1,015. Below 880, the longer-term positive scenario expires, and the AEX enters a neutral zone with an increased risk of further decline. As long as 880 holds, the positive scenario remains in place.
Above is the chart of the AEX as of January 2025. The arrows indicate the most likely scenario for the coming months.
What happened on the Nasdaq over the past week?
The Nasdaq futures are at 26,240 on Thursday morning, October 30, which is 1,150 points (4.6%) higher than last week.
The Nasdaq futures experienced a very strong week in which it nearly met its price target of 26,500 with a high of 26,400.
What is the outlook for the Nasdaq futures?
The expectation is positive with a new, longer-term price target of 27,800. In the most likely short-term scenario, the Nasdaq will experience a larger correction in the interim to a level of 24,000 points. A close below 22,200 eliminates the positive scenario.
Below is the chart of the Nasdaq futures from January 2025 with the most likely scenario.
What happened on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Index this past week?
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What is the outlook for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index?
The expectation is positive, but the DJIA, in the most likely scenario, could experience a larger correction to the 45,500 level in the near term and then reach the longer-term price target of 49,000. The scenario expires at a close below 43,200.
Below is the chart of DJIA futures from April 2025 with the most likely scenario plotted.
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