Publication date: Sept. 25, 2025
It is Thursday, September 25. The AEX closed the regular session last night at 935. That is 18 points (1.95%) higher than last week's reading.
What happened on the AEX during the past week?
The AEX opened the week positively at 932. On Tuesday, the preliminary weekly high was set at 939 and the lowest was at 927.
What does this mean for sentiment on the AEX?
Underlying sentiment on the AEX is positive.
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What is the outlook on the AEX?
The AEX is moving in line with expectations, leaving the view unchanged. The longer-term expectation is unchanged and positive. In our algorithm's most likely scenario, the AEX will soon encounter some resistance in the 940-950 zone and undergo a slight correction of about 2 percent to 930-920 and then continue to rise towards the 1,050 price target. With a close below 880, the positive scenario expires and the AEX enters a neutral zone with an increased risk of further decline. As long as 880 holds, the positive scenario remains in place.
The chart above shows the AEX as of May 2025. The arrows indicate the most likely scenario for the coming months.
What happened on the Nasdaq this past week?
The Nasdaq futures are at 24,720 on Wednesday evening, September 24 which is 120 points (0.5%) higher than last week.
The Nasdaq futures had a relatively calm week in which it set a new record high on the boards at 25,027 points. After the week's positive opening price at 24,850, it pulled through to above 25,000. Then the Nasdaq corrected one percent to the current level.
What is the expectation for the Nasdaq futures?
The expectation is positive, but our algorithm has changed the price target from 27,800 to 26,500. In the most likely scenario, the Nasdaq will continue to correct about 2 percent to about 24,100 in the near term and then continue to rise towards the price target. A close below 22,200 eliminates the positive scenario.
Below is the chart of Nasdaq futures as of July 2024 with the most likely scenario.
What happened on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Index this past week?
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What is the outlook for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index?
The expectation is positive. In the most likely scenario, the DJIA can continue the correction to around 45,500 in the short term and then reach the price target of 49,000. The scenario expires at a close below 43,200.
Below is the chart of the DJIA futures from October 2024 with the most likely scenario plotted.
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