Publication date: October 24, 2025
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The week ahead: interest rate decision and inflation data US & EU
In Money Care's weekend report, we present you with the overview of the (macroeconomic) events that could cause movement in the stock markets.
Review of last week:
Due to the ongoing shutdown in the United States, the release of several key macroeconomic figures has been delayed. However, the market was surprised Friday afternoon with favorable inflation figures from the US. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose less than expected: up 0.3% month-on-month (expected 0.4%) and 3.0% year-on-year (expected 3.1%). The core CPI, which measures price trends excluding food and energy, unexpectedly fell from 0.3% to 0.2%. These lower-than-expected figures reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates further in the coming period.
Upcoming week:
An official calendar has been published with macroeconomic figures and events for Week 44, but as long as the US shutdown continues, several publications are expected to be delayed.
The focus this week will be on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, at 8 p.m. on Wednesday. The market is counting on a 25 basis point cut in the key interest rate to 4%, which was already cut by 25 basis points in September and is expected to be followed by two more rate cuts this year. The reason is the weakening of the labor market in the US. What is important for the upcoming interest rate cuts, in addition to the development of the labor market, is that inflation in the U.S. does not continue to rise. The Fed's press conference to follow at 8:30 p.m. will be followed closely by the markets.
The European Central Bank's (ECB) interest rate decision will follow on Thursday. The market consensus assumes an unchanged interest rate of 2.0%. Eurozone inflation remains manageable at 2.2%, close to the 2% target. At 3:45 p.m., the ECB will give explanations and forecasts at the press conference.
On Friday at noon, the Eurozone consumer price index (CPI) for October will be released. These figures will show whether the EU is keeping inflation under control and can continue its current interest rate policy.
Finally, the focus is on the core US CPI price index, scheduled for Friday at 2:30 pm. This is a key inflation measure of the US economy and is closely watched by the markets.
The stock market agenda week 44
Herewith the most important macroeconomic data for the coming week. The data may cause additional movement in the financial markets.
Note: this is the official agenda but as long as the shutdown continues, publications from the US will be delayed.
Monday, October 27, 2025:
Tuesday, October 28, 2025:
United States:
Wednesday, October 29, 2025:
United States:
Thursday, October 30, 2025:
Friday, October 31, 2025:
United States:
Please note that dates and times of these events may change. For the most up-to-date information, it is advisable to consult the official communication channels of the relevant organizations and authorities.
Disclaimer: Investinginvolves risks. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.