On August 27, 2026, we published our most recent update on gold. At that time, gold was trading around $4,300, following a summer rally that took it to nearly $4,650. Our model initially saw room for a move toward $4,850, followed by a correction to the $3,800 range. The recovery did indeed materialize, pushing gold to around $4,700 in September. This was followed by the expected decline toward $3,800. At the end of October, the price dropped to $3,862, its lowest level in over a year.
In this article, we’ll look at what has changed since late August and outline the scenario leading to our unchanged price target of $6,200.
To stay fully informed, we recommend that you first read the article“Gold: After a Strong Summer Rally, a New Test on the Way to $6,200.”You can find the article HERE.
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What has happened with gold since late August?
The decline that began in late August continued through September and October. Tensions surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz kept oil prices high and, with them, inflation concerns. The Fed, under Chairman Kevin Warsh, stuck to the hard line he had already adopted in late August. Hopes for interest rate cuts in 2026 have thus all but vanished. Higher interest rates and a strong dollar are weighing on gold, as the precious metal itself does not pay interest.
The $4,000 level, which was still considered a solid floor this summer, did not hold. A final wave of selling followed in late October. A decline in stocks dragged gold down with it, and after breaking through key support levels, the price briefly dipped below $3,900. Measured from the record high of $5,598 in January, the correction thus amounts to well over 30%.
This week, sentiment shifted. The Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress in the U.S. midterm elections. As a result, investors expect the Trump administration’s tax and spending plans to be curtailed. That means fewer new government bonds. Yields on U.S. Treasury bonds fell, and the 10-year yield dropped to 4.84%, its lowest level since early September. The dollar also weakened. Gold benefited from both developments and rose nearly 3% on Wednesday, climbing back above $4,000. Today, gold is trading around $4,125.
What do banks and analysts expect?
Since our last article, the major banks have become more cautious. In September, Goldman Sachs lowered its price target for the end of 2026 from $4,900 to $4,650. JPMorgan expects a price of approximately $4,500 for the fourth quarter. Still, most price targets for this year remain above the current price.
The outlook for 2027 is clearly more positive. Goldman Sachs and UBS expect around $5,400 by the end of 2027. Morgan Stanley anticipates a gold price above $5,000 next year. According to the banks, structural support comes primarily from central banks that continue to diversify their reserves and seek to reduce their dependence on the dollar.
Yelza’s Outlook
Below is the gold price chart dating back to November 2025. The arrows show, at a glance, the most likely scenario according to our model.
Source: TradingView, analysis by Yelza
In August, our model predicted a correction to the $3,800 range before the uptrend would resume. Following the rally to approximately $4,700, that correction occurred. The low was reached at $3,862. Even in the broader context dating back to March, when our model indicated a correction toward $3,900, this low falls within the expected range. Our model now considers the correction to be complete and expects a new upward trend that will unfold in stages.
The first step is a recovery toward $4,850. That represents an increase of approximately 18% from the current level. This is expected to be followed by a shorter pullback to the zone around $4,390. From that level, gold could surge to approximately $5,600—a retest of January’s record high. A second correction toward $4,840 will then set the stage for the final upward move. Our price target remains unchanged at $6,200. From the current price, that represents a potential increase of approximately 50%. Our model thus places us above the consensus of the major banks. We view the decline of over 30% as a healthy correction within a broader long-term trend.
Conclusion
Gold has undergone a sharp correction. Our model assumes that the low of $3,862 marks the end of that correction. For investors without a position in gold, this may be an interesting time to consider establishing a position, for example in increments around the current level of approximately $4,125 and during the expected pullback toward $4,390. Those already invested in gold may consider holding onto their position. The path to our price target of $6,200 is expected to be volatile, with interim declines.
Disclaimer: Investing involves risks. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts’ own insights and experiences. They are therefore intended for educational purposes only.