Publication date: October 17, 2025
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The week ahead: US shutdown and US-China trade war
In Money Care's weekend report, we present you with the overview of the (macro-economic) events that could cause movement in stock markets.
Review of last week:
Due to the shutdown of the federal government (shutdown) in the US, almost all US macroeconomic publications have been delayed since October 1. There is as yet no clarity on how long this undesirable situation will last. According to US Treasury estimates, the shutdown is costing the economy up to $15 billion per week inoutput. The combination of uncertainty about its duration, political gridlock and economic damage is causing turmoil in both the stock and crypto markets.
On October 10, President Trump announced a 100% tariff on Chinese imports in response to China's extension of export restrictions on rare earths. In a rudderless and nervous stock market, an uptick in the ongoing U.S.-China trade war is coming hard. China has announced extensive countermeasures in the past week. This phase of the trade war clearly shows escalation. Instead of just tariff adjustments, it is now more about strategic control over technology, raw materials and logistics.
On October 15, international heavyweight ASML came out with third-quarter figures. These were received positively. Sales of €7.5 billion were in line with expectations. The gross margin of 51.6% was in line with expectations, but was slightly lower than in previous quarters. For the fourth quarter, ASML expects revenue between €9.2 billion and €9.8 billion and a margin of 51% to 53%. The company did warn that Chinese demand could drop significantly by 2026. The share price rose from €846 to €900 (+6.4%) in the days after publication, providing ASML with temporary support for the AEX index.
Upcoming week:
An official calendar has been published with the macroeconomic figures and events for Week 43. On Friday, October 24, it includes the important inflation figures from the United States. As long as the shutdown continues, the publication is expected to be delayed. However, given the importance of the inflation data, it is advisable to remain alert on Friday afternoon at 2:30 p.m., as the CPI figures may still be released. There is currently great uncertainty from the US.
The equity and crypto markets will be influenced by developments in the US shutdown and the escalated trade war between the US and China next week.
The prevailing expectation in the market is that the trade war is developing into a "Cold Trade War": a controlled escalation with structural rivalry, but without complete rupture. The United States and China continue to take tough measures, but avoid direct economic disruption. Import tariffs remain high (30-100%) and export restrictions on high-tech products and raw materials continue to expand. At the same time, trade in essential goods such as medical devices, agricultural products and consumer electronics chips largely continues. A meeting between President Trump and President Xi is scheduled during the APEC summit in South Korea October 31 - November 1.
The stock market calendar week 43
Herewith the most important macroeconomic data for the coming week. The data may cause additional movement in the financial markets.
Note: this is the official agenda but as long as the shutdown continues, publications from the US will be delayed.
Monday, October 20, 2025:
Tuesday, October 21, 2025:
Wednesday, October 22, 2025:
No major macroeconomic data
Thursday, October 23, 2025:
Friday, October 24, 2025 :
Please note that dates and times of these events may change. For the most up-to-date information, it is advisable to consult the official communication channels of the relevant organizations and governments.
Disclaimer: Investinginvolves risks. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.