Following our recent publication of 26 March 2026 about Bitcoin, we indicated that the price could recover to around $80,000, before potentially declining again towards the $50,000 level. Over the past two months, Bitcoin has indeed reached a price level of $82,000. Recently, however, a pattern has started to emerge that may indicate a new decline in the short term.
Read the article of 26 March 2026, “Bitcoin update: First recovery phase aimed at $100,000”, HERE.
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Bitcoin: unable to follow the high tech hype
A notable development can be seen in the price pattern. Until the autumn of 2025, the Nasdaq 100 and Bitcoin generally moved in a similar trend. Since November 2025, that correlation has clearly weakened. The rise of AI is attracting a large amount of capital towards technology stocks, causing the Nasdaq 100 to rise sharply. Bitcoin, by contrast, is lagging behind and has so far not benefited from the same capital flow.
Below you can see the comparison between the price development of the Nasdaq 100 and Bitcoin over the past eighteen months. During this period, the Nasdaq 100 rises by 46%, while Bitcoin falls by more than 11%. The question is whether this is a temporary divergence or whether Bitcoin will continue to lag behind the strong rise within the technology sector for a longer period.
What is our expectation for Bitcoin over the next twelve months?
According to our model, the most likely scenario for the next twelve months has been adjusted slightly. The system currently indicates that the probability of a decline towards approximately $50,000 has increased significantly. At the same time, the price target for the next twelve months remains at $95,000. For active investors, this scenario may offer room for a phased trading strategy, in which the short term downside risk is weighed against the longer term recovery potential.
An important point is that the downside scenario for the coming months will temporarily no longer apply if Bitcoin closes above $84,000 on a daily basis.
Below you will find the most recent scenario with the highest probability according to our model.
Conclusion
According to our model, Bitcoin is currently moving within a scenario in which a decline towards the $55,000 to $50,000 zone is highly likely. Within this analysis, active investors may consider critically reviewing existing positions and only rebuilding positions once the price approaches the $50,000 to $55,000 zone. The price target for the coming year remains $95,000. From the mentioned zone, this would imply a potential return of around 80%, depending on the final entry level.
For investors with sufficient experience, knowledge, and risk tolerance, a short position may also be part of the consideration. Various crypto platforms and brokers now offer short opportunities to retail clients. In addition, a short position can be taken through a CFD broker, potentially with leverage. This latter option involves additional risk and is only suitable for very experienced and skilled investors.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $73,000. If the price closes above $84,000, the downside scenario will temporarily no longer apply. In that case, it would be logical to critically reassess any short position.
Disclaimer: Investing involves risk. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.