Publication date: August 28, 2025
In our previous May 1, 2025 article on Bitcoin, we addressed the $140,000 price target and the impact of the EurUSD ratio on Bitcoin. We are now four months on and Bitcoin's development is going according to plan and the price target is in sight. This is a reason to look further ahead again because, according to our technical model, the possibility of a long-term correction has increased.
You can read the May 1, 2025 Bitcoin article HERE.
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What is Bitcoin's current situation?
Currently, Bitcoin is quoted around $110,000. Based on the technical patterns of recent months, the price has started the run-up to the unchanged price target of $140,000. Since May 1, 2025, the low has been $96,000 and the price has tested $123,000 - $124,000 twice. The stock price is benefiting from the increased possibility of a U.S. interest rate cut in September 2025.
How would an interest rate cut in the U.S. affect the price of Bitcoin?
An interest rate cut in the U.S. generally has a positive effect on the USDollar exchange rate of Bitcoin and may prompt it to make the tentative final sprint to the $140,000 mark.
When the Fed cuts interest rates, borrowing money becomes cheaper and more liquidity enters the market. Traditionally, that capital flows first into riskier assets such as stocks and technology companies, as well as crypto such as Bitcoin. The exchange rate benefits as investors look for higher yields outside of traditional bonds or savings products that are then less attractive.
A rate cut makes the USDollar less attractive to foreign investors, which often weakens the USDollar. Bitcoin is often seen as a hedge against a falling USDollar (similar to gold). Thus, a weaker USDollar can strengthen demand for Bitcoin.
In a period of low interest rates, investors shift to risky assets, including crypto. Bitcoin is then seen as a "risk-on asset" and moves with equities, especially the Nasdaq and tech sectors.
At the same time, the story of Bitcoin as "digital gold" comes into play. When interest rates drop, inflation expectations often increase. This can make Bitcoin attractive as a protection against monetary depreciation.
What is the long-term expectation of Bitcoin's price?
Below is the price chart of Bitcoin in USDollar as of the end of 2020.
The forecast based on the most likely multi-year scenario is plotted. You can see the price target at $140,000 in 2025. This rate is technically the highest achievable in 2025 according to our system. Thus, from the current level of $110,000, there is still expected to be about 25% - 30% rise in the barrel. After that, according to the multi-year pattern, a long-term correction will begin. Not a crash but a bear-market (down market) that may last longer. Currently, the system indicates a bear-market price target in the $75,000 - $65,000 zone. After the prolonged correction, it is technically room up to the $175,000 - $185,000 zone.
What is the general analyst expectation for Bitcoin?
Here we find wide variations, but the general consensus among analysts is bullish. Expectations range from moderate gains ($140-$200k) to very ambitious targets ($1 million or more), especially in the longer term. However, technical risks remain present in the near term, while fundamental and institutional developments provide a solid foundation for future growth. As a result, our most likely scenario is more consistent with those with a positive but moderate expectation.
Conclusion:
Bitcoin remains an investment with considerable potential, but also with high volatility. The long-term price target of $185,000 will most likely be preceded by a sizeable correction. Our system expects to reach the short-term price target of up to $140,000. Be alert and consider unwinding positions in the $130,000 - $140,000 zone. In the most likely scenario, we then enter a longer correction. This could trigger a decline to around $75,000. Around that level, buy positions become interesting again due to the expected rise to around $180,000.
Disclaimer: Investing involves risk. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.